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10 January 2010

A Republican Senator from Massachusetts? Wow!!!

In the Special Election to fill the Senate seat in Massachusetts vacated by Senator Kennedy's death on 19 January, Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley in a poll taken on Saturday by 48% to 47%.

Here are some key reasons:
  • 66% of Republicans who plan to vote are very excited about voting in the Special Election, but only 48% of the Democrats who plan to vote are very excited.
  • Independents view Brown favorably as opposed to unfavorably with a 70% to 16% split.  In the election with Coakley, 63% favor Brown over 31% who favor Coakley.  But clearly large numbers of those who plan to vote for Coakley nonetheless view Brown favorably, dampening their enthusiasm for Coakley.
  • 59% of Massachusetts independents oppose Obamacare, while only 27% support it.
  • Obama won Massachusetts by a margin of 26%, but voters who plan to vote in the Special Election only gave him a 16% margin.
  • Many Massachusetts voters plan to vote for the party out of power.
  • The 20% of voters who dislike both major parties plan to give Brown a lead of 74% to 21%.
  • Among all likely voters, Brown is viewed favorably by 57% and negatively by 25%.  The 32% difference compares to Republican Bob McDonnell's favorability difference of 20%, yet he won in Virginia with a 17% margin.
  • Surprisingly, given that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3 to 1 ratio, about half of the state's voters are independents.
  • Democrat Gov. Deval Patrick is not popular and faces a tough re-election campaign in 2010, despite winning easily in 2006.
If Scott Brown should become the first Republican Massachusetts Senator since Edward Brooke, who served 2 terms from 1967 through 1978, he has vowed to vote against Obamacare, which will break the Democrat 60-vote filibuster-proof block.  This has Democrats very worried and talking about finding a way to delay his taking his Senate seat, if he should win the election.  The election fight may not be over, however, since Coakley, the state attorney general, has more money and more organizational support, as in labor unions!

Scott Brown is not exactly either a great libertarian or a great conservative, but he is from Taxachusetts, so what can you expect.  At least he will break that Democrat 60-vote filibuster-proof block in the Senate and he may be able to stop Obamacare.  These are such important causes, that you should seriously consider donating his campaign money, as I have.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

48% to 47%, that's a statistical tie! And you're reading this much into that!!! Wow!!!

Charles R. Anderson, Ph.D. said...

Sure, it is a statistical tie. But, no Republican candidate for the Senate is supposed to be in a statistical tie with a Democrat in Taxachusetts. It is also clear that in the last month, all the momentum has been with Scott Brown. That can change quickly in an election and polls can be wrong about who will vote as well. We shall see what happens on 19 January.