Among the issues most commonly discussed are individuality, the rights of the individual, the limits of legitimate government, morality, history, economics, government policy, science, business, education, health care, energy, and man-made global warming evaluations. My posts are aimed at intelligent and rational individuals, whose comments are very welcome.

"No matter how vast your knowledge or how modest, it is your own mind that has to acquire it." Ayn Rand

"Observe that the 'haves' are those who have freedom, and that it is freedom that the 'have-nots' have not." Ayn Rand

"The virtue involved in helping those one loves is not 'selflessness' or 'sacrifice', but integrity." Ayn Rand

For "a human being, the question 'to be or not to be,' is the question 'to think or not to think.'" Ayn Rand
Showing posts with label life expectancy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label life expectancy. Show all posts

27 April 2011

AIG Bets on Shortened Life Spans

AIG was rescued by the federal government and the Federal Reserve Bank in the bailout binge early in the Great Socialist Recession with $182.5 billion of taxpayer money.  It faces a very uncertain time in its very broad insurance business due to many factors.  Among these are:
  • It is still struggling to pay the government back.
  • The never-ending recession is still reducing its income.
  • Insured property values are depressed and no one knows when they might improve.
  • ObamaCare may or may not remain as written.
  • Many of the most important provisions of ObamaCare are regulations and rules to be written by about 140 agencies and panels.
  • Will the fewer and larger health insurance companies that will likely result with ObamaCare have as much need for re-insurance from AIG as the smaller, more balkanized insurance companies of today do?
  • The present administration is solidly anti-business and constantly advocating increased business taxes and regulations.
  • If ObamaCare becomes fully activated, how fast will medical care become degraded and how much will the lives of the primary insurance holders be shortened?
There does appear to be one business on which AIG will likely be able to make a profit.  It has a growing business in buying older people's life insurance policies.  The business is called life settlements.  If an older person wants the value of his paid-in life insurance, he can sell it to AIG and AIG will continue to make his insurance payments with AIG as the new beneficiary.  If the older person dies while the life insurance policy is in effect, AIG gets a big payout.  AIG wins on this if it can discount the paid-in amount in buying the insurance contract or figure out who is likely to die earlier than the insurance company that initially sold them the policy thought they were going to die.  This means they can look at whether someone has come to suffer a disease that is likely to shorten their lives.

The life settlement business becomes easier if ObamaCare is put into effect.  If ObamaCare works as advertised, some poor people would receive better medical care, while most middle class and wealthier people will find doctor's and hospitals with aging equipment, reduced innovations, less time for them, and a near-slave mentality brought on by being increasingly underpaid and increasing bossed around by thuggish government bureaucrats.  The middle class and the wealthier hold most life insurance policy value and their lives are clearly going to be shortened relative to the reasonable expectation when they bought their life insurance policies.  Worsening medical care under ObamaCare will help AIG to make a profit on its developing life settlement business.  Ironically, this will help AIG pay back the taxpayers who rescued it.

In 2006, the future death benefits of its life settlements business were $3.7 billion with 1,799 contracts.  In 2010, this business had grown to $17.7 billion in future death benefits and 5,673 contracts.  Just as AIG has bundled mortgages to make mortgage bonds, AIG would like to do the same with these life settlement contracts.  Unfortunately, in March, Standard & Poor's refused to put a risk evaluation on such bonds, stating the difficulty of estimating the life expectancies of insured individuals.  Wow!  Life insurance companies have been doing this quite well for decades, but now we suddenly find that this can no longer be done?  What is up?  The answer is that the uncertainty is caused by ObamaCare.  Most of the people want it changed so some changes may be made, it has been ruled both unconstitutional and constitutional, the changes of the health care system are radical, most medical experts understand that it will reduce the quality of medical care with rationing and underpayments of doctors and hospitals, the bureaucracy rules are not written yet, the state programs are not set up, and the rate of life expectancy deterioration is not yet known.

But, despite all this uncertainty, AIG can safely buy up insurance policies issued before ObamaCare was passed against the will of the people and make a profit on those policies.  They are only betting that those people will not live as long as was expected before ObamaCare came along to shorten our lives.  Any half rational adult should be able to see that.  Meanwhile, pity the life insurance companies will have to pay out benefits due to deaths that will occur earlier than expected due to ObamaCare.  This will surely reduce their profits and cause many such life insurance companies to go belly-up.  That in turn will leave many life insurance holders with insurance policies unable to pay out their death benefits.  ObamaCare and so many other Obama policies are proving to be most disruptive by virtue of creating debilitating business uncertainties.

09 September 2009

Kravis: Life Expectancy Humbug

The socialists claim over and over that the American health care system offers less quality than the European socialist systems do because:
  • American life expectancy is lower than that of the Western Europeans and Canadians, despite our spending twice as much money on health care.
  • Infant mortality rates in the U.S. are higher than in most other developed countries.
I have long been sure that these were specious arguments, given that I knew that American survivability rates for many illnesses were higher than those in those developed countries with longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality. I have long thought I should look into this more.

I am very grateful that Marie-Josee Kravis, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, has looked into this and thought it through. She wrote a great Ideas & Opinions piece in the 21 September 2009 issue of Forbes called Life Expectancy Humbug - We're getting a lot of sophistry connecting health care to life spans. To boil it down:
  • If you reach 65, Americans have a longer life expectancy than Britons and Germans.
  • Life expectancy depends upon diet and lifestyle as well as health care.
  • American road fatalities are among the highest in the developed world. We drive more among other things.
  • Our homicide rate is 10 times that of the U.K.
  • 32.2% of Americans are obese, while in Japan it is 3%, France 9.5%, Germany 13.6%, Canada 18%, Australia 21.7%, according to the OECD. Obesity accounts for 10% of health costs in the U.S., but only from 2 to 3.5% in Canada. Obese Americans spend 36% more for health care and 77% more for medications than people of normal weight. Diabetes is 20 times more likely for them, heart disease 2.5 times more likely, and cancer, hypertension, and asthma are twice as likely.
Kravis asks if the Democrat health insurance changes will do anything to decrease road fatalities, homicides, over-eating, too little exercise, smoking, and dangerous use of drugs and alcohol? She says no. In fact, she worries that if these are considered pre-existing health issues and insurance companies have to provide insurance at costs subsidized by the healthy insurance purchasers, then those with bad lifestyle habits are simply encouraged to indulge those bad habits further.

She says that the quality of the health care available should be judged based upon the survival rate outcomes for illnesses, rather than life expectancy. She notes:
  • U.S. mortality rates for all cancers are 166.3 per 100,000, while the OECD countries average 171, Canada is 173.2, France is 170.2, and U.K. is 175.6.
  • Lancet Oncology found that Americans have lower mortality rates for 13 of the 16 most common forms of cancer.
She points out that infant mortality rates are a function of the mother's choices with respect to her age upon giving birth, her marital status, and her drug use and drinking habits. The mortality rate for teen pregnancies is higher than for older women and pregnant women in the U.S. are more likely to live alone than in other countries. These contributors to infant mortality will not go away with changes in health insurance.

I looked up a few other statistics of interest:
  • The U.S. heart disease death rate is 106.5 per 100,000, with the U.K. at 122, Australia at 110.9, Sweden at 110.1, Germany 106.1, Canada 94.9, Netherlands at 75.1, France 39.8, and Japan at 30. The low French and Japanese death rates make it clear that these rates are not simply related to the quality of the health care system.
  • The percentage of road deaths and firearms deaths both are maximal in the 15 to 24 year old age group in the U.S., which explains why these causes of death decrease American life expectancies so much.
  • Life expectancy is also a function of dangerous careers. A nation with more fishermen, lumberjacks, and pilots and flight engineers, will tend to have a shorter life expectancy.
  • Life expectancy will be shortened in a nation with a larger transportation industry, construction industry, and more warehousing, agriculture, and hunting.
Socialists will use any false argument to support more socialist programs, as long as it might seem plausible to most of the people who will not look into the argument more closely.

13 March 2009

The Economist on American Health Care

Mining the 7 - 13 March issue of center-left or center-socialist The Economist further, it discusses the American health care system and the attempts of the Obama administration to degrade it with still more socialism. Of course, The Economist does not call it degradation. After discussing the politics of Tom Daschle's tax problems and how that kept him from becoming the Secretary of Health and Human Services and the appointment of Kathleen Sibelius to that position instead, they slam our health care system in the usual ways.

The Economist says we spend $2.2 trillion per year on health care and get "mediocre results." They say Americans die nearly two years earlier than west Europeans. They say that 46 million Americans lack health insurance. They add that ever-rising medical costs could break the budget. OK, let us examine these claims.

First, we do spend much more money on medical research, development, and care than do other countries. Some of this is wasted money due to Medicare and Medicaid and their harmful effects, which are of the nature of the added harmful effects which will come from further government intervention in the health care system. The Economist article mentions the fact that a typical hospital has a profit margin of 48% on each privately insured patient and loses 44% on each patient using Medicaid. When a hospital is losing money on a patient covered by Medicaid or Medicare, their tendency is to respond with charges for items and services which are not used or needed in order to partially compensate for the loss. This is wasteful and increases the cost of Medicare to the taxpayers and for healthcare. This also sets up habits, which are then responsible for increased costs assigned to privately insured patients also. The whole system becomes more wasteful and it starts with the central fact that the Medicare or Medicaid patient has too little incentive to care about the cost of his medical care and the medical care givers are unhappy with being forced to work without fair compensation.

Another important cost is the very high liability of American hospitals and doctors since they are not protected by a government umbrella against being sued as a nationalized medical system would be. This lack of protection does hold the medical profession to a higher degree of responsibility, but of course it comes with high costs. Among them, doctors must be overcautious in following some standard procedures even when they know they may not be best for a given patient and they must over-prescribe medical tests and some operations.

Still another factor is that we do a very disproportionate fraction of the world's medical research and development. This is very expensive. But, it is also an important factor in the growing life span of people around the world, who even in the socialized medicine environments of western Europe and elsewhere derive benefits from our commitment to medical R&D.

The nationalized medical systems of western Europe save money by rationing medical care and by making it slow rather than responsive. They make operations which are optional, but life-enhancing in the eyes of those who want them, unavailable. They also have a greater preferrence for allowing an older person to die rather than perform an expensive operation which may extend their life only a relatively short time. Finally, they are commonly also slower to make use of the latest medical procedures and to acquire new technology when it is still in its expensive stage. The costs of most sophisticated medical equipment comes down fairly rapidly in time, so you save money by waiting until it costs less. Meanwhile, some people die. A system that makes such choices can save money, but there is a very real expense in quality of life associated with this savings.

Finally, America is richer than western Europe on average. When you are richer, you are willing, able, and happy to spend more on your health and on medical care.

But The Economist's second point seems to argue against all I have said above to justify our greater medical expense. The fact that we have a nearly two year shorter life expectancy than western Europeans seems significant. It seems to suggest that the socialist health care systems of western Europe are doing a better job of giving people longer lives at less expense. Let us examine this.

The populations of western Europe are more homogeneous than is that of the U.S. There are growing numbers of Muslims from North Africa, but the European population of Native Americans and Black Africans is much lower than in the United States. There is a genetic component to life expectancy and there are also behavioral components. These are not likely in many cases to be changed by a socialized health care system. For instance, black African American males have an average lifespan which is 6.2 years shorter than that of white men and 8.3 years shorter than the national average. Native Americans average even shorter lifespans than African Americans.

African Americans have a 70% increased likelihood for diabetes. They are about 80% likely to be salt sensitive, while about half of the world population is, and this makes them more prone to high blood pressure. The high incidence of diabetes and salt sensitivity make them more likely to die from heart disease and they do at a 30% higher rate than whites. African American men are most likely to die from homicide, followed by unintentional injuries, between the ages of 15 and 34. African Americans are more likely to be obese and they are the only group with sickle cell anemia and the health problems related to that. Black Americans also make unhealthy eating choices more frequently and make sexual choices which cause them to acquire sexually transmitted diseases in higher rates by far than other groups of the population. So, the net shorter American lifespan is substantially due to genetic and subculture differences which are not a function of the health care system.

More accurately, the number of Americans reported without health insurance was 46.9 million earlier, but it is now reported to be 45.7 million. Obama and the Democrats are still generally using the outdated number to say that the number of uninsured Americans is 47 million. More important, the number of uninsured is really an estimate of all people living in the United States and includes millions of illegal immigrants who are Americans in the sense that they mostly come from North or South America. But it also includes other illegal immigrants from other parts of the world. Furthermore many of the uninsured can afford insurance, but choose not to have it. Some because they are young and healthy. Some because they are wealthy enough to be self-insured.

Indeed, if you have enough income and fairly liquid assets, it is perfectly rational not to have health insurance, which usually has an upper limit of payments and which certainly has a profit margin built into the cost of the insurance. About 2.87% of American households have an income of $200,000 a year or more. If a household has had this level of income for a few years, it may have built up a good nest egg of investments and savings. These about 2.9 million households have an average of 3 people in the household, so there are about 8.7 million Americans who might very reasonably choose to be self-insured. In some cases, some of these households might choose to in effect insure other family members not living in the household as well. So it is very reasonable to believe that health insurance is very optional for as many as 10,000,000 Americans. Because Americans are relatively wealthy, there is a higher percentage of Americans who would choose not to have health insurance than would be the case in most of the world, including western Europe.

Finally, The Economist is worried about our rising medical costs. So am I, but I am sure that they will only continue to rise even more with more government intervention, or if they do not, it will be due to drastic, anti-individual modes of government forced rationing of health care. Our current rising costs are a function of both wasteful current government meddling through Medicare, Medicaid, and the courts and many increased options for our health care offered by new technology and procedural advances. The latter cause is a good one. Another expense increaser is the problem that the rest of the world is more and more opting out of their responsibilities for the development and the costs of new procedures and drugs. America is subsidizing the rest of the world's healthcare in a big way. The only way we can prevent this is to shoot ourselves in the foot.

The article notes that Obama has signed an expansion of the state health insurance for children. He has set aside more than $630 billion over ten years as a "down-payment" towards making health care affordable for everyone, clearly at added expense to many others. And what does it really mean to say he has set this money aside, when he has no such money, but only huge deficits? He also wants to force all parents to buy health insurance for their children. He would not allow insurers to reject covering people for new insurance who have pre-existing health problems, which will raise medical insurance for the healthy. He will allow everyone to buy into the government health plan if they wish. Obama will curb costs by cutting out waste (a precedent breaking new government ability unique to Obama government) and he will encourage healthy living. He will computerize medical records and use this to determine what procedures have the most bang for the buck, so he can ration health care according to his evaluation of what bang is enough for the buck. He will increase taxes further on liquor, cigarettes, and sugary drinks. Restaurants may be forced to serve smaller portions. Companies will be forced to provide gyms for their employees to use and presumably force them to actually use those facilities. What an American concept!

Where is the sovereignty of the individual to be perceived in these plans? Each of our lives is to be micromanaged by our all-knowing government. How delightful. We will all have to live almost 2 years longer no matter how little some of us might like the rules. If only those genetic factors and those lifestyle choices predominantly found in some ethnic groups do not prove too resistant to government rules and mandates, we should have a successful future as western European socialist mimics.

10 June 2008

Richard Rahn: Manslaughter by Politicians

Richard Rahn published an article called "Manslaughter by Politicians" in the Washington Times on 4 June 2008 which is a good read. Commonly, politicians find reasons to pass many thousands of pages of new legislation every year that affect our ability to perform work and to produce goods and services. The greater part of this legislation imposes great costs, which few people stop to consider. They simply accept whatever intended purpose for the legislation the politician offers up as being the only important result of the legislation. If it seems it might be nice to reduce the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by the human use of energy, then why bother to calculate the cost of using less energy, of developing and using new forms of energy which emit less CO2, or figuring out what human activities will have to be given up to pursue the goal of reducing CO2 emissions. The same is true with respect to many other things that seem good to people, such as OSHA requirements for workplace safety. When do we ever calculate the actual cost of nice sounding legislation against the expected benefit of that legislation? Almost never, and when we do, the calculation is simple-minded and biased toward proving that the legislation was necessary, since it is usually the government that is funding the research study.

Economics is the study of the use of limited resources and all resources are limited and finite, especially perhaps that of human life hours. We are all constantly faced with the decision to do this or to do that. Often, we cannot do both and if we can, we still often have to decide which action we will take first. So, if we are spending more of our money to buy gasoline because the government will not allow oil and gas companies to drill for oil in the United States, then we will have less money to spend on our medical needs. If we must pay more for food because the government is requiring the use of a large fraction of all US corn to make ethanol for gasoline fuel mixtures and driving up the costs of food production with crop subsidies, then again we will be able to spend less on medical care. Since worldwide food prices have doubled in the last year, many poor people around the world are suffering increased malnutrition, which leads to shortened lifespans. There are reasons why the average life expectancy is highly correlated with the per capita income of a society and why income growth is correlated with economic freedom.

Rahn cites a study by Frank Lichtenberg of the National Bureau for Economic Research that found that the medical expenditure needed to gain one life year in the US is about $11,000 and the pharmaceutical R&D expenditure needed to gain one life year is $1354. Consequently, when the politicians proposed allowing Americans to buy their prescription drugs in Canada, where a national health system puts pressure on pharmaceutical companies to sell their drugs at prices below those sufficient to fund the development of new drugs, the necessary expenditure to buy one year of life through pharmaceutical developments becomes impossible. So, does it make sense to save some money now on drug purchases at the expense of not further extending American lives in the future? Few people ask and think about this question, yet it is a central question.

When politicians fail to ask such questions and to weigh them rationally, they are committing manslaughter. When dealing with manslaughter, we have a serious responsibility to name the crime, even if it does not seem to be the nice thing to do in a non-confrontational society. But, it is better to force a confrontation and examine the consequences of the actions we force upon others carefully, then to unthinkingly bury the bodies as they pile up.