Showing posts with label 2010 election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 election. Show all posts
24 October 2010
Government Employees Union is Lord of Campaign Spenders and Master Thief
The ultra special interest group in elections would be that which has the most to gain from Big Government. The Lord of all the independent election campaign spenders is the government employees union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, or AFSCME, union. This union now has 1.6 million members and that membership has grown by 25% in the last decade, making it a very powerful union.
In comparison, the total number of non-farm workers in the U.S. grew by 5.0% from September 2000 to September 2010 and that number includes the large increase in government workers. The U.S. population grew by about 6.5% in the last decade. The AFSCME union grew by leaps and bounds because state and local government spending from 2000 to 2008 soared upward by 55% and federal government spending skyrocketed by 66.7%! AFSCME grew rich on this huge transfer of wealth from the private sector to the government sector. This bloodsucking of the private sector resulted in a decade of little job growth and little increase in the standard of living for other Americans.
The 22 October 2010 Wall Street Journal reported that AFSCME has spent or is spending $87.5 million on the Democrats to continue the transfer of wealth from the private sector to the government sector. In comparison, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the 2nd biggest spender, is spending $75 million and the American Crossroads and Crossroads GOP is spending $65 million. The Service Employees International Union, SEIU, which spend so heavily to get Obama elected and whose members pension fund is critically underfunded, is spending $44 million. The next biggest campaign spender is another government sector employees union, the National Education Association, which is spending $40 million to keep the government spending spigots fully open. It is clear that the unions are expecting to be paid back for their efforts with bundles and bundles of taxpayer money. Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads are simply trying to reduce the damage to the American People caused by the huge confiscation of private wealth by the governments and politicians who lust for power.
In the private sector, unions have come to represent a smaller and smaller fraction of those employed, with union members being more than 30% of workers in 1965, but only about 8% now. In comparison, about 40% of state and local government workers are union members now. That percentage has been fairly constant since the early 1980s, though there has been a recent Socialist Recession increase. Those government employees in unions, when compared to state or local governments with no unions, are receiving 31% more pay and 68% more in benefits. The states with the greatest incidence of unionized government workers are states with higher pay generally, so one has to correct for that. The result is that they are paid 10% more with that correction, but such a correction to the huge benefit packages still leaves a large windfall to the unionized government worker. The recent increase in union workers has been most noticeable on the West Coast, where 16.7% of workers in California are now union. This is part of the reason why the local and state governments of California are in such financial straits. It is also contributing to the anti-business climate of California and causing many businesses to leave the state or build new facilities outside the state.
Governments controlled by the Democrats are kind and generous to the unions. But, the Tea Party movement has the Republicans much less inclined to be so generous. On principle, they are in favor of smaller, limited governments. They have become very aware that the growth of government has resulted in a loss of their freedoms and deprived them of personal choices. The Tea Party is putting the screws to those long-tenured Republican politicians who have favored the growth of government. The Tea Party people are aware that the transfer of wealth from the private sector to the government sector is hurting the economy and putting our children and grandchildren into unbelievable debt. AFSCME is the opposition and is spending a hefty fraction of its members $390 per year dues to counter the Tea Party and the Constitution itself, which calls for a very limited federal government.
The Socialist Recession we are still staggering in for the third year, has caused a large reduction in state and local government income. Many of these governments increased taxes on the People who were themselves staggering due to the Socialist Recession. At least $160 billion of the $787 billion Stimulus Package was given to state and local governments so that AFSCME workers would not suffer from the recession as those of us in the private sector have. The increased taxes and the federal Stimulus largesse allowed the states to have only a small reduction of employees, while local governments actually had a net increase in workers during the recession. The Republicans must counter this privileged government worker nonsense as they gain strength in this election in Congress and in the states. Republican Gov. Chris Christie has proposed that public employee unions in New Jersey be limited in the use of member dues for political purposes. The National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation wants to make government employee unions voluntary organizations, which is a viewpoint with which I agree and to which I have contributed.
The AFSCME union has a great desire to grow, which means it is invested in the growth of governments at the local, state, and federal levels. It has another pressing reason to control the politicians: the defined benefits retirement plans for many state and local government employees in the union are unsound. Illinois, Louisiana, New Jersey, Connecticut, Indiana, Oklahoma, and Hawaii have defined benefit legal contracts which they will not be able to meet by the end of the decade according to Prof. Joshua Rauh of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and Prof. Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Illinois is in the worst shape, perhaps due to the legacy of the Chicago politicians such as Obama. Assuming that the Illinois pension fund has an surprising 8% rate of return and the state makes the contributions planned, the pension fund runs out of money in 2018. After that, the state must raise taxes by $14 billion a year. The other states in the list will not last through 2020. By 2030, 31 states may be unable to meet their defined benefit pensions requirements. They will be going to the federal government with hat in hand to come up with the money to meet these requirements. The resulting bailouts will match or exceed the bailouts of this Socialist Recession.
I recently discussed the defined benefit multiemployer pension failures of the private sector labor unions in a post called Union Pension Fund Swindles, Their Democrat Henchmen, and the Beknighted Taxpayer.
These private sector unions with very underfunded pension plans have been hoping to get the federal government and the Democrats to bail them out also. Again the scale of the bailout is comparable to that of the bailouts in this Socialist Recession.
The legacy of the Democrat, and of some long-tenured Republican, politicians has been unfunded liabilities that are likely to total many times the staggering sums we recently paid in this Socialist Recession. It is now clear that we still have huge payouts to make for Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac as well. The payouts for their unmet obligations may be $300 billion. The management of American government has been horribly mishandled and we will be paying the consequences with a lowered standard of living for a very long time. It would have been so much wiser if we had lived by the principle that governments should be limited in power and that the People were capable of choosing their own individual values and managing their own lives. The Nanny State has proven to be a thief operating on a scale to beggar us all.
In comparison, the total number of non-farm workers in the U.S. grew by 5.0% from September 2000 to September 2010 and that number includes the large increase in government workers. The U.S. population grew by about 6.5% in the last decade. The AFSCME union grew by leaps and bounds because state and local government spending from 2000 to 2008 soared upward by 55% and federal government spending skyrocketed by 66.7%! AFSCME grew rich on this huge transfer of wealth from the private sector to the government sector. This bloodsucking of the private sector resulted in a decade of little job growth and little increase in the standard of living for other Americans.
The 22 October 2010 Wall Street Journal reported that AFSCME has spent or is spending $87.5 million on the Democrats to continue the transfer of wealth from the private sector to the government sector. In comparison, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the 2nd biggest spender, is spending $75 million and the American Crossroads and Crossroads GOP is spending $65 million. The Service Employees International Union, SEIU, which spend so heavily to get Obama elected and whose members pension fund is critically underfunded, is spending $44 million. The next biggest campaign spender is another government sector employees union, the National Education Association, which is spending $40 million to keep the government spending spigots fully open. It is clear that the unions are expecting to be paid back for their efforts with bundles and bundles of taxpayer money. Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads are simply trying to reduce the damage to the American People caused by the huge confiscation of private wealth by the governments and politicians who lust for power.
In the private sector, unions have come to represent a smaller and smaller fraction of those employed, with union members being more than 30% of workers in 1965, but only about 8% now. In comparison, about 40% of state and local government workers are union members now. That percentage has been fairly constant since the early 1980s, though there has been a recent Socialist Recession increase. Those government employees in unions, when compared to state or local governments with no unions, are receiving 31% more pay and 68% more in benefits. The states with the greatest incidence of unionized government workers are states with higher pay generally, so one has to correct for that. The result is that they are paid 10% more with that correction, but such a correction to the huge benefit packages still leaves a large windfall to the unionized government worker. The recent increase in union workers has been most noticeable on the West Coast, where 16.7% of workers in California are now union. This is part of the reason why the local and state governments of California are in such financial straits. It is also contributing to the anti-business climate of California and causing many businesses to leave the state or build new facilities outside the state.
Governments controlled by the Democrats are kind and generous to the unions. But, the Tea Party movement has the Republicans much less inclined to be so generous. On principle, they are in favor of smaller, limited governments. They have become very aware that the growth of government has resulted in a loss of their freedoms and deprived them of personal choices. The Tea Party is putting the screws to those long-tenured Republican politicians who have favored the growth of government. The Tea Party people are aware that the transfer of wealth from the private sector to the government sector is hurting the economy and putting our children and grandchildren into unbelievable debt. AFSCME is the opposition and is spending a hefty fraction of its members $390 per year dues to counter the Tea Party and the Constitution itself, which calls for a very limited federal government.
The Socialist Recession we are still staggering in for the third year, has caused a large reduction in state and local government income. Many of these governments increased taxes on the People who were themselves staggering due to the Socialist Recession. At least $160 billion of the $787 billion Stimulus Package was given to state and local governments so that AFSCME workers would not suffer from the recession as those of us in the private sector have. The increased taxes and the federal Stimulus largesse allowed the states to have only a small reduction of employees, while local governments actually had a net increase in workers during the recession. The Republicans must counter this privileged government worker nonsense as they gain strength in this election in Congress and in the states. Republican Gov. Chris Christie has proposed that public employee unions in New Jersey be limited in the use of member dues for political purposes. The National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation wants to make government employee unions voluntary organizations, which is a viewpoint with which I agree and to which I have contributed.
The AFSCME union has a great desire to grow, which means it is invested in the growth of governments at the local, state, and federal levels. It has another pressing reason to control the politicians: the defined benefits retirement plans for many state and local government employees in the union are unsound. Illinois, Louisiana, New Jersey, Connecticut, Indiana, Oklahoma, and Hawaii have defined benefit legal contracts which they will not be able to meet by the end of the decade according to Prof. Joshua Rauh of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and Prof. Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Illinois is in the worst shape, perhaps due to the legacy of the Chicago politicians such as Obama. Assuming that the Illinois pension fund has an surprising 8% rate of return and the state makes the contributions planned, the pension fund runs out of money in 2018. After that, the state must raise taxes by $14 billion a year. The other states in the list will not last through 2020. By 2030, 31 states may be unable to meet their defined benefit pensions requirements. They will be going to the federal government with hat in hand to come up with the money to meet these requirements. The resulting bailouts will match or exceed the bailouts of this Socialist Recession.
I recently discussed the defined benefit multiemployer pension failures of the private sector labor unions in a post called Union Pension Fund Swindles, Their Democrat Henchmen, and the Beknighted Taxpayer.
These private sector unions with very underfunded pension plans have been hoping to get the federal government and the Democrats to bail them out also. Again the scale of the bailout is comparable to that of the bailouts in this Socialist Recession.
The legacy of the Democrat, and of some long-tenured Republican, politicians has been unfunded liabilities that are likely to total many times the staggering sums we recently paid in this Socialist Recession. It is now clear that we still have huge payouts to make for Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac as well. The payouts for their unmet obligations may be $300 billion. The management of American government has been horribly mishandled and we will be paying the consequences with a lowered standard of living for a very long time. It would have been so much wiser if we had lived by the principle that governments should be limited in power and that the People were capable of choosing their own individual values and managing their own lives. The Nanny State has proven to be a thief operating on a scale to beggar us all.
11 October 2010
Updated Close House Races and ObamaCare Repeal
I have updated my list of closely contested House of Representatives races. You can see that the movement since the original post is clearly in favor of the Republicans, despite liberal media claims that they see a closing of the gap in the favor of the Democrats. I have also added the names of the Republican candidate who opposes those Democrats who voted for ObamaCare. I repeat my suggestion that you send campaign contributions to the Republican opponents of those Democrats who voted for ObamaCare and are in close election races. Since those Democrats who voted against ObamaCare cannot be trusted to vigorously oppose it in the future, please contribute to their Republican opponents as well.
07 October 2010
Repealing ObamaCare and the Senate Races of 2010
Updated 11 Oct 2010: Only changed race is the New York Senate seat becoming Likely DEM, rather than Leans DEM.
If the tyrannical ObamaCare takeover of our lives and very bodies is to be repealed, it is essential to establish a super-majority of Republicans in the Senate by the time of the 2012 election. That super-majority combined with a Republican President will be able to repeal ObamaCare. But, barely more than a third of the Senate seats come up for election every two years, so this 2010 election cycle is absolutely critical for getting halfway to the goal of 60 Republican Senators. Yes, it is possible that 58 Republican Senators and a couple of awakened and fearful Democrat Senators might allow the repeal of ObamaCare, but it never pays to count on the rationality of a Democrat on a political issue. They commonly hold completely nonsensical viewpoints on welfare, spending, the role and size of government, redistribution of income and wealth, minimum wage laws, energy mandates, catastrophic man-made global warming, central planning, and anything to do with the economy and business.
Let us list the current evaluation of the Senate races in play from RealClearPolitics:
Oregon, D, Wyden, Republican Candidate: Jim Huffman
New York, D, Gillibrand, Republican Candidate: Joe DiGuardi
Toss-Up
Leans GOP:
It would be a very good investment in your freedom and that of those you love to contribute as much campaign money as you can to the Republican candidates in the Toss-Up and Leans GOP or Leans DEM races.
If the tyrannical ObamaCare takeover of our lives and very bodies is to be repealed, it is essential to establish a super-majority of Republicans in the Senate by the time of the 2012 election. That super-majority combined with a Republican President will be able to repeal ObamaCare. But, barely more than a third of the Senate seats come up for election every two years, so this 2010 election cycle is absolutely critical for getting halfway to the goal of 60 Republican Senators. Yes, it is possible that 58 Republican Senators and a couple of awakened and fearful Democrat Senators might allow the repeal of ObamaCare, but it never pays to count on the rationality of a Democrat on a political issue. They commonly hold completely nonsensical viewpoints on welfare, spending, the role and size of government, redistribution of income and wealth, minimum wage laws, energy mandates, catastrophic man-made global warming, central planning, and anything to do with the economy and business.
Let us list the current evaluation of the Senate races in play from RealClearPolitics:
Likely DEM:
Delaware, D, High Tax Marxist Running for Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Christine O'DonnellOregon, D, Wyden, Republican Candidate: Jim Huffman
New York, D, Gillibrand, Republican Candidate: Joe DiGuardi
Leans DEM:
Connecticut, D, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Linda McMahonToss-Up
California, D, Boxer, Republican Candidate: Carly Fiorina
Colorado, D, Bennet, Republican Candidate: Ken Buck
Illinois, D, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Mark Kirk
Nevada, D, Reid, Republican Candidate: Sharron Angle
Washington, D, Murray, Republican Candidate: Dino Rossi
West Virginia, D, Open, Republican Candidate: John RaeseLeans GOP:
Kentucky, R, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Rand Paul
Missouri, R, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Roy Blunt
New Hampshire, R, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Kelly Ayotte
Pennsylvania, D, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Pat Toomey
Wisconsin, D, Feingold, Republican Candidate: Ron Johnson
Likely GOP:
Alaska, R, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Joe Miller
Florida, R, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Marco Rubio
Indiana, D, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Dan Coats
Louisiana, R, Vitter, Republican Candidate: David Vitter
North Carolina, R, Burr, Republican Candidate: Richard Burr
Ohio, R, Open Seat, Republican Candidate: Rob Portman
It would be a very good investment in your freedom and that of those you love to contribute as much campaign money as you can to the Republican candidates in the Toss-Up and Leans GOP or Leans DEM races.
04 October 2010
ObamaCare and the Close Races for Seats in the House
1 Nov 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Safe DEM became Likely DEM, 3 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, 9 Leans DEM became Toss-up, 1 Leans DEM became Leans GOP, 4 Toss-ups became Leans GOP, 2 Leans GOP became Likely GOP, 3 Leans GOP became Toss-ups, 2 Toss-ups became Leans DEM; GOP Seats: 1 Likely GOP became Leans GOP. The change is the DEM Seats moved 17 categories toward the GOP advantage, while GOP Seats moved 1 category to the DEM advantage. The shift remains continuous toward the Republicans. I now expect the GOP to pick up 68 seats in the House.
25 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, 3 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 10 Toss-ups become Leans GOP, 1 Leans GOP becomes Likely GOP, 1 Leans GOP becomes Toss-up, 2 Toss-ups become Leans DEM, 1 Leans DEM becomes Likely DEM, GOP Seats: No Changes. The sum of the Safe GOP, Likely GOP, and Leans GOP seats would give the GOP 222 seats, or 4 more than the majority. I expect the GOP to win about 20 of the 34 Toss-up seats given the momentum of more and more DEM seats becoming more and more at risk. The GOP should gain about 64 seats and have 242 seats in the next session of the House of Representatives!
19 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, 4 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 1 Toss-up became Leans GOP; GOP Seats: 1 Leans DEM became Toss-up, 1 Likely GOP became Leans GOP. Mostly Democrat seats continue to move toward being more contested. The situation for GOP seats is more static and it remains true that they are not moving seats into Likely GOP or into Safe GOP.
16 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 9 Safe DEM became Likely DEM, 3 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, 3 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 2 Toss-ups became Leans GOP, 1 Toss-up became Leans DEM, 1 Leans GOP became a Toss-up, GOP Seats: 1 Toss-up became a Leans DEM. The change is that fewer and fewer Democrat seats are safe, but that the Republicans cannot lock additional seats as safe. Apparently the People are sending the message they are unhappy with the DEMS but not so sure about the GOP either.
12 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 3 Safe DEM became Likely DEM, 2 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, One Leans DEM became Toss-up, One Toss-up became Leans GOP, and one Leans GOP became Likely GOP, GOP Seats: One Likely GOP became Leans GOP, The change remains massively in GOP favor!
11 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Safe DEM became Likely DEM, 1 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, GOP Seats: No changes, The change favors the GOP.
7 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Safe Seats became DEM Likely, 3 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 2 Toss-ups became Leans GOP, 1 Leans GOP became Likely GOP, 1 Likely GOP became Leans GOP, GOP Seats: 1 Leans DEM became Toss-up, The change favors the GOP.
The single most egregious act of Obama and the Democrat Congress was the passage of ObamaCare. This act implements the planned theft of every American's body and the imposition of a tyrannical control by bureaucrats over who lives and who dies. The most important outcome of the election in November is to put control of the House of Representatives in the hands of Representatives who will use the power of the House to initiate expenditures to prevent the funding of ObamaCare. Steve King, a Republican Representative from Iowa, has made a motion to discharge a number of committees from considering H.R. 4972 to repeal ObamaCare. Most, but not all, Republican members of the House have signed this motion. Only one Democrat has signed it, that being Gene Taylor, of Mississippi, who is in a tight race to retain his seat. I have put the name of the Republican opponent to those who voted for ObamaCare at the end of the line for each of the tyrannical beasts of the House of Representatives.
RealClearPolitics as of 2 October had the races for the House evaluated as follows:
139 [now 137] [now 135] [now 132] [now 123] [now 121] Seats Safe for Democrats, all of which were Democrat
18 [now 20] [now 21] [now 22] [now 28] [now 26] [now 25] [now 24] Seats Likely Democratic, all of which are held by Democrats now
33 [now 29] [now 30] [now 31] [now 33] [now 30] [now 31] [now 26] Seats Leaning Democrat, all but 3 [2] [3] [2] of which are now held by Democrats
38 [now 39] [now 43] [now 34] [now 40] Seats Rated Toss-ups, all but 1 [2] [1] [2] of which are now held by Democrats
30 [now 33] [now 34] [now 35] [now 37] [now 45] [now 46] Seats that Leans GOP, all but 2 [4] [5] [6] of which are now held by Democrats
14 [now 13] [now 14] [now 15] Seats that are Likely GOP, 9 [8] [7] [6] of which are now held by Republicans
163 Seats Safe for the Republicans
11 races shifted by one category of probability since the original post. 10 of those shifts were favorable to the Republicans. Only Virginia District 5 moved in favor of the Democrats, shifting from Likely GOP to Leans GOP.
Because Nancy Pelosi had votes to spare on ObamaCare, a few of the Democrat majority from much less socialist districts than hers were given permission to vote against the bill. Since what matters in the next session of Congress is the defunding of ObamaCare, there is no point in voting for a would-be member of the House who has not announced his intent to relentlessly attack ObamaCare by signing the discharge motion. For those who want to destroy the tyranny of ObamaCare, it is a very good idea to make campaign contributions to the Republican opponent of the Democrats in close races who either voted for ObamaCare or who have not signed the motion to discharge to indicate they are actual proponents of the repeal of ObamaCare.
Generally speaking, there will be very few Democrats who will ever be useful allies in the critical cause of overturning centrally planned and controlled medical care in the United States, which the pretended fiscal conservativism of the Blue Dog Democrats has proven. I have indicated which Democrats are in the Blue Dog Caucus, which mostly just means that they pretend to their constituents that they are fiscally conservative and says very little about how they vote in Congress. In addition, I have identified those who are members of the Democratic Socialists of America Caucus. Of the 70 socialist Representatives, only 10 are in close races, despite Americans general turn-away from socialism. These socialist Representatives should be especially targeted. The closely contested races by state are:
Alabama
Bobby Bright, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Parker Griffith, R, 5th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare
Arkansas
Marion Berry, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Mike Ross, D, 4th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Vic Snyder, D, 2nd District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare
Arizona
Gabrielle Giffords, D, 8th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Jesse Kelly
Raul Grijalva, D, 7th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ruth McClung, Was Safe DEM, Was Likely DEM, Was Leans DEM
Ann Kirkpatrick, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Toss-up, Opp. Paul Gosar
Harry Mitchell, D, 5th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. David Schweikert
John Shadegg, R, 3rd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge, Was Likely GOP
California
Mary Bono, R, 45th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Dennis Cardoza, D, 18th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Berryhill
Jim Costa, D, 20th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Andy Vidak, Was Toss-up
Daniel Lungren, R, 3rd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Jerry McNerney, D, 11th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. David Harmer, Was Toss-up
Loretta Sanchez, D, 47th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Van Tran
Colorado
Betsy Markey, D, 4th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Cory Gardner
Ed Perlmutter, D, 7th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ryan Frazier
John Salazar, D, 3rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Scott Tipton
Connecticut
Joe Courtney, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Janet Peckinpaugh
Jim Hines, D, 4th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Dan Debicella, Was Leans DEM
John Larson, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Ann Brickley
Christopher Murphy, D, 5th District, Toss-Up, Yes on ObamaCar, Was Leans DEM, Opp. Sam Caligiuri
Florida
Allen Boyd, D, 2nd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Steve Southerland, Was Toss-up
Mario Diaz-Balart, R, 25th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge, Was Likely GOP
Alan Grayson, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Dan Webster
Ron Klein, D, 22nd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Allen West, Was Toss-up
Suzanne Kosmas, D, 24th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Sandy Adams
Adam Putnam, R, 12th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Georgia
John Barrow, D, 12th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Sanford Bishop, D, 2nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Keown
Jim Marshall, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Toss-up
Hawaii
Charles Djou, R, 1st District, Toss-up, Special Election after ObamaCare Vote, Was Leans DEM
Idaho
Walt Minnick, D, 1st District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Likely DEM
Illinois
Melissa Bean, D, 8th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Joe Walsh
Bill Foster, D, 14th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Randy Hultgren, Was Toss-up
Phil Hare, D, 17th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Bob Schilling, Was Toss-up
Deborah Halvorson, D, 11th District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCar, Was Leans GOP, Opp. Adam Kinzinger
Mark Kirk, R, 10th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Running for Senate, Was Toss-up, Was Leans DEM
Indiana
Joe Donnelly, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Jackie Walorski, Was Leans DEM
Brad Ellsworth, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Larry Bucshon
Baron Hill, D, 9th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Todd Young, Was Toss-up
Iowa
Leonard Boswell, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Brad Zaun, Was Toss-up
Bruce Braley, D, 1st District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ben Lange, Was Leans DEM, Was Toss-up
David Loebsack, D, 2nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Kansas
Dennis Moore, D, 3rd District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Kevin Yoder, Was Leans GOP
Kentucky
Ben Chandler, D, 6th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
John Yarmuth, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Todd Lally
Louisiana
Joseph Cao, R, 2nd District, Leans DEM, No on ObamaCare
Charlie Melancon, D, 3rd District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Chellie Pingree, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Dean Scontras, Was Leans DEM
Maryland
Frank Kratovil, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Barney Frank, D, 4th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Sean Bielat, Was Likely DEM
John Tierney, D, 6th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Bill Hudak
Niki Tsongas, D, 5th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jon Golvick
Michigan
John Dingell, D, 15th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Rob Steele
Gary Peters, D, 9th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Rocky Roczkowski
Mark Schauer, D, 7th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Tim Walberg, Was Leans GOP
Bart Stupak, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Retiring, Opp. Dan Benishek
Minnesota
Michele Bachmann, R, 6th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
James Oberstar, D, 8th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Chip Cravaack, Was Likely DEM, Was Leans DEM
Timothy Walz, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Randy Demmer
Collin Peterson, D, 7th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Safe DEM
Mississippi
Travis Childers, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare
Gene Taylor, D, 4th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Benny Thompson, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Bill Marcy
Missouri
Russ Carnaham, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ed Martin, Was Likely DEM
Emanuel Cleaver, D, 5th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Jacob Turk, Was Safe
Ike Skelton, D, 4th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare
New Hampshire
Paul Hodes, D, 2nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Charlie Bass, Was Toss-up
Carol Shea-Porter, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Frank Guinta
New Jersey
John Adler, D, 3rd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Toss-up
Rush Holt, D, 12th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Scott Sipprelle
Frank Pallone, D, 6th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCar, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Anna Little
New Mexico
Martin Heinrich, D, 1st District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jon Barela, Was Toss-up
Ben Lujan, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp Tom Mullins
Harry Teague, D, 2nd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Toss-up
Brian Higgins, D, 27th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Lenny Roberto, Was Safe DEM
Maurice Hinchey, 22nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America, Caucus, Opp. George Phillips, Was Safe DEM, Was Likely DEM
Steve Israel, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. John Gomez, Was Safe DEM
Daniel Maffei, D, 25th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ann Marie Buerkle, Was Leans DEM
Michael McMahon, D, 13th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare
Carolyn McCarthy, D, 4th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Francis Becker, Was Safe DEM
Scott Murphy, D, 20th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Chris Gibson, Was Leans DEM
Bill Owens, D, 23rd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Matt Doheny, Was Leans DEM,Was Toss-up
North Carolina
Bob Etheridge, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Renee Ellmers, Was Leans DEM
Larry Kissell, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare
Mike McIntyre, D, 7th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Brad Miller, D, 13th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Bill Randall, Was Safe DEM
David Price, D, 4th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. B. J. Lawson
Heath Shuler, D, 11th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Ohio
John Boccieri, D, 16th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jim Renacci
Steve Driehaus, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Steve Chabot
Mary Jo Kilroy, D, 15th District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Steve Stivers, Was Leans GOP
Dennis Kucinich, D, 10th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Peter Corrigan, Was Safe DEM
Zachary Space, D, 18th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Toss-up
Betty Sutton, D, 13th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Tom Ganley
Pat Tiberi, R, 12th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Charles Wilson, D, 6th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Bill Johnson, Was Likely DEM
Oklahoma
Dan Boren, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Oregon
Peter DeFazio, D, 4th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Art Robinson, Was Likely DEM
Kurt Schrader, D, 5th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Scott Bruun
David Wu, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Rob Cornilles
Christopher Carney, D, 10th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Tom Marino
Mark Critz, D, 12th District, Toss-up, Special Election since ObamaCare Vote
Kathy Dahlkenper, D, 3rd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Kelly
Charles Dent, R, 15th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Jim Gerlach, R, 6th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Tim Holden, D, 17th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Paul Kanjorski, D, 11th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Lou Barletta, Was Leans GOP
Patrick Murphy, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Fitzpatrick
Allyson Schwartz, D, 13th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Carson Adcock, Was Safe DEM
Joe Sestak, D, 7th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Senate Candidate, Opp. Pat Meehan, Was Leans GOP
Rhode Island
Patrick Kennedy, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Retiring, Opp. John Loughlin, Was Likely DEM, Was Leans DEM
South Carolina
John Spratt, D, 5th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Mick Mulvaney, Was Toss-up
Tennessee
Jim Cooper, D, 5th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. David Hall
Lincoln Davis, D, 4th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Bart Gordon, D, 6th District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Diane Black
John Tanner, D, 8th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans GOP
Texas
Lloyd Doggett, D, 25th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Donna Campbell, Was Safe DEM
Chet Edwards, D, 17th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Leans GOP
Rube Hinojosa, D, 15th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Eddie Zamora, Was Safe DEM
Solomon Ortiz, D, 27th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. R. Blake Farenthoid, Was Safe DEM, Was Likely DEM
Ciro Rodriguez, D, 23rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Francisco Canseco
Utah
Jim Matheson, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Virginia
Rick Boucher, D, 9th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare
Gerald Connelly, D, 3rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Keith Fimian
Glenn Nye, D, 2nd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Toss-up
Tom Perriello, D, 5th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Likely GOP, Opp. Robert Hurt
Washington
Brian Baird, D, 3rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jaime Herrera, Was Leans GOP
Norman Dicks, D, 6th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Douglas Cloud, Was Safe
Rick Larsen, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. John Koster, Was Leans DEM
David Reichert, R, 8th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Likely GOP
Adam Smith, D, 9th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Dick Muri, Was Leans DEM
West Virginia
Alan Mollohan, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. David McKinley
Nick Rahall, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Elliott "Spike" Maynard
Wisconsin
Steve Kagen, D, 8th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Reid Ribble
Ron Kind, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Dan Kapanke
David Obey, D, 3rd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Retiring, Opp. Sean Duffy
If you are a Winter Soldier for the equal, sovereign individual rights to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness, then you will join this desperate fight to kill this brutal, totalitarian threat by ObamaCare to our lives and liberties. Defunding and then repealing this monstrosity of socialism may very likely save your life or that of some of your loved ones. There is no better use for the money your work has earned you than to turn it into a fatal weapon against tyranny in this epic battle for American freedoms. Please give to your fullest possible extent so that we can replace Pelosi as Speaker of the House and proceed to dismantle and repeal ObamaCare. The dismantling can begin in 2011, though the repeal will require the addition of many more Senators committed to repeal in 2012 and the replacement of Obama with a Republican committed to repealing ObamaCare.
25 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, 3 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 10 Toss-ups become Leans GOP, 1 Leans GOP becomes Likely GOP, 1 Leans GOP becomes Toss-up, 2 Toss-ups become Leans DEM, 1 Leans DEM becomes Likely DEM, GOP Seats: No Changes. The sum of the Safe GOP, Likely GOP, and Leans GOP seats would give the GOP 222 seats, or 4 more than the majority. I expect the GOP to win about 20 of the 34 Toss-up seats given the momentum of more and more DEM seats becoming more and more at risk. The GOP should gain about 64 seats and have 242 seats in the next session of the House of Representatives!
19 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, 4 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 1 Toss-up became Leans GOP; GOP Seats: 1 Leans DEM became Toss-up, 1 Likely GOP became Leans GOP. Mostly Democrat seats continue to move toward being more contested. The situation for GOP seats is more static and it remains true that they are not moving seats into Likely GOP or into Safe GOP.
16 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 9 Safe DEM became Likely DEM, 3 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, 3 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 2 Toss-ups became Leans GOP, 1 Toss-up became Leans DEM, 1 Leans GOP became a Toss-up, GOP Seats: 1 Toss-up became a Leans DEM. The change is that fewer and fewer Democrat seats are safe, but that the Republicans cannot lock additional seats as safe. Apparently the People are sending the message they are unhappy with the DEMS but not so sure about the GOP either.
12 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 3 Safe DEM became Likely DEM, 2 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, One Leans DEM became Toss-up, One Toss-up became Leans GOP, and one Leans GOP became Likely GOP, GOP Seats: One Likely GOP became Leans GOP, The change remains massively in GOP favor!
11 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Safe DEM became Likely DEM, 1 Likely DEM became Leans DEM, GOP Seats: No changes, The change favors the GOP.
7 Oct 2010 Update: DEM Seats: 2 Safe Seats became DEM Likely, 3 Leans DEM became Toss-ups, 2 Toss-ups became Leans GOP, 1 Leans GOP became Likely GOP, 1 Likely GOP became Leans GOP, GOP Seats: 1 Leans DEM became Toss-up, The change favors the GOP.
The single most egregious act of Obama and the Democrat Congress was the passage of ObamaCare. This act implements the planned theft of every American's body and the imposition of a tyrannical control by bureaucrats over who lives and who dies. The most important outcome of the election in November is to put control of the House of Representatives in the hands of Representatives who will use the power of the House to initiate expenditures to prevent the funding of ObamaCare. Steve King, a Republican Representative from Iowa, has made a motion to discharge a number of committees from considering H.R. 4972 to repeal ObamaCare. Most, but not all, Republican members of the House have signed this motion. Only one Democrat has signed it, that being Gene Taylor, of Mississippi, who is in a tight race to retain his seat. I have put the name of the Republican opponent to those who voted for ObamaCare at the end of the line for each of the tyrannical beasts of the House of Representatives.
RealClearPolitics as of 2 October had the races for the House evaluated as follows:
139 [now 137] [now 135] [now 132] [now 123] [now 121] Seats Safe for Democrats, all of which were Democrat
18 [now 20] [now 21] [now 22] [now 28] [now 26] [now 25] [now 24] Seats Likely Democratic, all of which are held by Democrats now
33 [now 29] [now 30] [now 31] [now 33] [now 30] [now 31] [now 26] Seats Leaning Democrat, all but 3 [2] [3] [2] of which are now held by Democrats
38 [now 39] [now 43] [now 34] [now 40] Seats Rated Toss-ups, all but 1 [2] [1] [2] of which are now held by Democrats
30 [now 33] [now 34] [now 35] [now 37] [now 45] [now 46] Seats that Leans GOP, all but 2 [4] [5] [6] of which are now held by Democrats
14 [now 13] [now 14] [now 15] Seats that are Likely GOP, 9 [8] [7] [6] of which are now held by Republicans
163 Seats Safe for the Republicans
11 races shifted by one category of probability since the original post. 10 of those shifts were favorable to the Republicans. Only Virginia District 5 moved in favor of the Democrats, shifting from Likely GOP to Leans GOP.
Because Nancy Pelosi had votes to spare on ObamaCare, a few of the Democrat majority from much less socialist districts than hers were given permission to vote against the bill. Since what matters in the next session of Congress is the defunding of ObamaCare, there is no point in voting for a would-be member of the House who has not announced his intent to relentlessly attack ObamaCare by signing the discharge motion. For those who want to destroy the tyranny of ObamaCare, it is a very good idea to make campaign contributions to the Republican opponent of the Democrats in close races who either voted for ObamaCare or who have not signed the motion to discharge to indicate they are actual proponents of the repeal of ObamaCare.
Generally speaking, there will be very few Democrats who will ever be useful allies in the critical cause of overturning centrally planned and controlled medical care in the United States, which the pretended fiscal conservativism of the Blue Dog Democrats has proven. I have indicated which Democrats are in the Blue Dog Caucus, which mostly just means that they pretend to their constituents that they are fiscally conservative and says very little about how they vote in Congress. In addition, I have identified those who are members of the Democratic Socialists of America Caucus. Of the 70 socialist Representatives, only 10 are in close races, despite Americans general turn-away from socialism. These socialist Representatives should be especially targeted. The closely contested races by state are:
Alabama
Bobby Bright, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Parker Griffith, R, 5th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare
Arkansas
Marion Berry, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Mike Ross, D, 4th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Vic Snyder, D, 2nd District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare
Arizona
Gabrielle Giffords, D, 8th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Jesse Kelly
Raul Grijalva, D, 7th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ruth McClung, Was Safe DEM, Was Likely DEM, Was Leans DEM
Ann Kirkpatrick, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Toss-up, Opp. Paul Gosar
Harry Mitchell, D, 5th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. David Schweikert
John Shadegg, R, 3rd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge, Was Likely GOP
California
Mary Bono, R, 45th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Dennis Cardoza, D, 18th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Berryhill
Jim Costa, D, 20th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Andy Vidak, Was Toss-up
Daniel Lungren, R, 3rd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Jerry McNerney, D, 11th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. David Harmer, Was Toss-up
Loretta Sanchez, D, 47th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Van Tran
Colorado
Betsy Markey, D, 4th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Cory Gardner
Ed Perlmutter, D, 7th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ryan Frazier
John Salazar, D, 3rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Scott Tipton
Connecticut
Joe Courtney, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Janet Peckinpaugh
Jim Hines, D, 4th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Dan Debicella, Was Leans DEM
John Larson, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Ann Brickley
Christopher Murphy, D, 5th District, Toss-Up, Yes on ObamaCar, Was Leans DEM, Opp. Sam Caligiuri
Florida
Allen Boyd, D, 2nd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Steve Southerland, Was Toss-up
Mario Diaz-Balart, R, 25th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge, Was Likely GOP
Alan Grayson, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Dan Webster
Ron Klein, D, 22nd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Allen West, Was Toss-up
Suzanne Kosmas, D, 24th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Sandy Adams
Adam Putnam, R, 12th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Georgia
John Barrow, D, 12th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Sanford Bishop, D, 2nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Keown
Jim Marshall, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Toss-up
Hawaii
Charles Djou, R, 1st District, Toss-up, Special Election after ObamaCare Vote, Was Leans DEM
Idaho
Walt Minnick, D, 1st District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Likely DEM
Illinois
Melissa Bean, D, 8th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Joe Walsh
Bill Foster, D, 14th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Randy Hultgren, Was Toss-up
Phil Hare, D, 17th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Bob Schilling, Was Toss-up
Deborah Halvorson, D, 11th District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCar, Was Leans GOP, Opp. Adam Kinzinger
Mark Kirk, R, 10th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Running for Senate, Was Toss-up, Was Leans DEM
Indiana
Joe Donnelly, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Jackie Walorski, Was Leans DEM
Brad Ellsworth, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Larry Bucshon
Baron Hill, D, 9th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Todd Young, Was Toss-up
Iowa
Leonard Boswell, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Brad Zaun, Was Toss-up
Bruce Braley, D, 1st District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ben Lange, Was Leans DEM, Was Toss-up
David Loebsack, D, 2nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Kansas
Dennis Moore, D, 3rd District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Kevin Yoder, Was Leans GOP
Kentucky
Ben Chandler, D, 6th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
John Yarmuth, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Todd Lally
Louisiana
Joseph Cao, R, 2nd District, Leans DEM, No on ObamaCare
Charlie Melancon, D, 3rd District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Maine
Michael Michaud, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Jason Levesque, Was Leans DEMChellie Pingree, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Dean Scontras, Was Leans DEM
Maryland
Frank Kratovil, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Massachusetts
William Delahunt, D, 10th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Retiring, Opp. Jeff PerryBarney Frank, D, 4th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Sean Bielat, Was Likely DEM
John Tierney, D, 6th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Bill Hudak
Niki Tsongas, D, 5th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jon Golvick
Michigan
John Dingell, D, 15th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Rob Steele
Gary Peters, D, 9th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Rocky Roczkowski
Mark Schauer, D, 7th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Tim Walberg, Was Leans GOP
Bart Stupak, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Retiring, Opp. Dan Benishek
Minnesota
Michele Bachmann, R, 6th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
James Oberstar, D, 8th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Chip Cravaack, Was Likely DEM, Was Leans DEM
Timothy Walz, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Randy Demmer
Collin Peterson, D, 7th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Safe DEM
Mississippi
Travis Childers, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare
Gene Taylor, D, 4th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Benny Thompson, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Bill Marcy
Missouri
Russ Carnaham, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ed Martin, Was Likely DEM
Emanuel Cleaver, D, 5th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Jacob Turk, Was Safe
Ike Skelton, D, 4th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare
Nebraska
Lee Terry, R, 2nd District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to DischargeNevada
Dina Titus, D, 3rd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Joe Heck, Was Toss-upNew Hampshire
Paul Hodes, D, 2nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Charlie Bass, Was Toss-up
Carol Shea-Porter, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Frank Guinta
New Jersey
John Adler, D, 3rd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Toss-up
Rush Holt, D, 12th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Scott Sipprelle
Frank Pallone, D, 6th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCar, Was Safe DEM, Opp. Anna Little
New Mexico
Martin Heinrich, D, 1st District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jon Barela, Was Toss-up
Ben Lujan, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp Tom Mullins
Harry Teague, D, 2nd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Toss-up
New York
Michael Arcuri, D, 24th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Timothy Bishop, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Randy Altschuler
John Hall, D, 19th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Nan Hayworth, Was Toss-upMichael Arcuri, D, 24th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Timothy Bishop, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Randy Altschuler
Brian Higgins, D, 27th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Lenny Roberto, Was Safe DEM
Maurice Hinchey, 22nd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America, Caucus, Opp. George Phillips, Was Safe DEM, Was Likely DEM
Steve Israel, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. John Gomez, Was Safe DEM
Daniel Maffei, D, 25th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Ann Marie Buerkle, Was Leans DEM
Michael McMahon, D, 13th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare
Carolyn McCarthy, D, 4th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Francis Becker, Was Safe DEM
Scott Murphy, D, 20th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Chris Gibson, Was Leans DEM
Bill Owens, D, 23rd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Matt Doheny, Was Leans DEM,Was Toss-up
North Carolina
Bob Etheridge, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Renee Ellmers, Was Leans DEM
Larry Kissell, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare
Mike McIntyre, D, 7th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Brad Miller, D, 13th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Bill Randall, Was Safe DEM
David Price, D, 4th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. B. J. Lawson
Heath Shuler, D, 11th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
North Dakota
Earl Pomeroy, D, At-Large, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Rick BergOhio
John Boccieri, D, 16th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jim Renacci
Steve Driehaus, D, 1st District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Steve Chabot
Mary Jo Kilroy, D, 15th District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Steve Stivers, Was Leans GOP
Dennis Kucinich, D, 10th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Peter Corrigan, Was Safe DEM
Zachary Space, D, 18th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Toss-up
Betty Sutton, D, 13th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Tom Ganley
Pat Tiberi, R, 12th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Charles Wilson, D, 6th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Bill Johnson, Was Likely DEM
Oklahoma
Dan Boren, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Oregon
Peter DeFazio, D, 4th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Democratic Socialists of America Caucus, Opp. Art Robinson, Was Likely DEM
Kurt Schrader, D, 5th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Scott Bruun
David Wu, D, 1st District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Rob Cornilles
Pennsylvania
Jason Altmire, D, 4th District, Leans DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog PretenderChristopher Carney, D, 10th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Tom Marino
Mark Critz, D, 12th District, Toss-up, Special Election since ObamaCare Vote
Kathy Dahlkenper, D, 3rd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Kelly
Charles Dent, R, 15th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Jim Gerlach, R, 6th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Signed Motion to Discharge
Tim Holden, D, 17th District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Paul Kanjorski, D, 11th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Lou Barletta, Was Leans GOP
Patrick Murphy, D, 8th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Mike Fitzpatrick
Allyson Schwartz, D, 13th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Carson Adcock, Was Safe DEM
Joe Sestak, D, 7th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Senate Candidate, Opp. Pat Meehan, Was Leans GOP
Rhode Island
Patrick Kennedy, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Retiring, Opp. John Loughlin, Was Likely DEM, Was Leans DEM
South Carolina
John Spratt, D, 5th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Mick Mulvaney, Was Toss-up
South Dakota
Herseth Sandlin, At-Large, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Toss-up
Tennessee
Jim Cooper, D, 5th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. David Hall
Lincoln Davis, D, 4th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans DEM
Bart Gordon, D, 6th District, Likely GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Opp. Diane Black
John Tanner, D, 8th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Leans GOP
Texas
Lloyd Doggett, D, 25th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Donna Campbell, Was Safe DEM
Chet Edwards, D, 17th District, Likely GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Leans GOP
Rube Hinojosa, D, 15th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Eddie Zamora, Was Safe DEM
Solomon Ortiz, D, 27th District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. R. Blake Farenthoid, Was Safe DEM, Was Likely DEM
Ciro Rodriguez, D, 23rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Francisco Canseco
Utah
Jim Matheson, D, 2nd District, Likely DEM, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender
Virginia
Rick Boucher, D, 9th District, Toss-up, No on ObamaCare
Gerald Connelly, D, 3rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Keith Fimian
Glenn Nye, D, 2nd District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Blue Dog Pretender, Was Toss-up
Tom Perriello, D, 5th District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Was Likely GOP, Opp. Robert Hurt
Washington
Brian Baird, D, 3rd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Jaime Herrera, Was Leans GOP
Norman Dicks, D, 6th District, Likely DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Douglas Cloud, Was Safe
Rick Larsen, D, 2nd District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. John Koster, Was Leans DEM
David Reichert, R, 8th District, Leans GOP, No on ObamaCare, Was Likely GOP
Adam Smith, D, 9th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Dick Muri, Was Leans DEM
West Virginia
Alan Mollohan, D, 1st District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. David McKinley
Nick Rahall, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Elliott "Spike" Maynard
Wisconsin
Steve Kagen, D, 8th District, Toss-up, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Reid Ribble
Ron Kind, D, 3rd District, Leans DEM, Yes on ObamaCare, Opp. Dan Kapanke
David Obey, D, 3rd District, Leans GOP, Yes on ObamaCare, Retiring, Opp. Sean Duffy
If you are a Winter Soldier for the equal, sovereign individual rights to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness, then you will join this desperate fight to kill this brutal, totalitarian threat by ObamaCare to our lives and liberties. Defunding and then repealing this monstrosity of socialism may very likely save your life or that of some of your loved ones. There is no better use for the money your work has earned you than to turn it into a fatal weapon against tyranny in this epic battle for American freedoms. Please give to your fullest possible extent so that we can replace Pelosi as Speaker of the House and proceed to dismantle and repeal ObamaCare. The dismantling can begin in 2011, though the repeal will require the addition of many more Senators committed to repeal in 2012 and the replacement of Obama with a Republican committed to repealing ObamaCare.
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