Among the issues most commonly discussed are individuality, the rights of the individual, the limits of legitimate government, morality, history, economics, government policy, science, business, education, health care, energy, and man-made global warming evaluations. My posts are aimed at intelligent and rational individuals, whose comments are very welcome.

"No matter how vast your knowledge or how modest, it is your own mind that has to acquire it." Ayn Rand

"Observe that the 'haves' are those who have freedom, and that it is freedom that the 'have-nots' have not." Ayn Rand

"The virtue involved in helping those one loves is not 'selflessness' or 'sacrifice', but integrity." Ayn Rand

For "a human being, the question 'to be or not to be,' is the question 'to think or not to think.'" Ayn Rand
Showing posts with label Medieval Climate Optimum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Medieval Climate Optimum. Show all posts

24 December 2009

Controlling Wikipedia's Articles on Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming

The close-knit group of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (AGW) zealots had a major problem:  How were they going to make the Medieval Warm Period, well-known in the history books, scholarly publications, and encyclopedias disappear so the temperature rise in the late 20th Century would look remarkable and uniquely rapid?  Indeed, it would be best if the temperatures of the last thousand years or so looked pretty stable and then the temperatures shot up.  The hockey stick temperature proxy data of Michael Mann and Keith Briffa was so manipulated as to provide the thousand year flat and steady temperature history they desired.  Weird additions to the late 20th Century land surface temperatures and the movement of weather stations into cities and metropolitan area suburbs provided the dramatic necessary temperature rises of the late 20th Century needed to spread the alarm that man was destroying the Earth with his use of fossil fuels and the resulting emissions of CO2, a supposedly viscous greenhouse gas.

But all of those already published books told everyone about the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age that ended about 1840.  How might they spread the necessary misinformation quickly and get it into the hands of a public largely "educated" in government-run schools and therefore untutored in history and science?  They set up a website called RealClimate.org to put out the party line.  But then they still had to control the very popular source of easily searched information called Wikipedia.  William Connolley, a member of the 9-person RealClimate.org team of bloggers, a United Kingdom scientist, and Green Party activist, took on the job of controlling Wikipedia and its message on catastrophic AGW.

Lawrence Solomon tells the story here.  The important remaining part is given here:
Connolley took control of all things climate in the most used information source the world has ever known – Wikipedia. Starting in February 2003, just when opposition to the claims of the band members were beginning to gel, Connolley set to work on the Wikipedia site. He rewrote Wikipedia’s articles on global warming, on the greenhouse effect, on the instrumental temperature record, on the urban heat island, on climate models, on global cooling. On Feb. 14, he began to erase the Little Ice Age; on Aug.11, the Medieval Warm Period. In October, he turned his attention to the hockey stick graph. He rewrote articles on the politics of global warming and on the scientists who were skeptical of the band. Richard Lindzen and Fred Singer, two of the world’s most distinguished climate scientists, were among his early targets, followed by others that the band especially hated, such as Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, authorities on the Medieval Warm Period.

All told, Connolley created or rewrote 5,428 unique Wikipedia articles. His control over Wikipedia was greater still, however, through the role he obtained at Wikipedia as a website administrator, which allowed him to act with virtual impunity. When Connolley didn’t like the subject of a certain article, he removed it — more than 500 articles of various descriptions disappeared at his hand. When he disapproved of the arguments that others were making, he often had them barred — over 2,000 Wikipedia contributors who ran afoul of him found themselves blocked from making further contributions. Acolytes whose writing conformed to Connolley’s global warming views, in contrast, were rewarded with Wikipedia’s blessings. In these ways, Connolley turned Wikipedia into the missionary wing of the global warming movement.

Insidious, but it was all done so that the smug elitists could feel good about controlling the ignorant trailer park masses and save the Earth.  It was absolutely wonderful how smug they felt.  And it was great that they had the full backing of socialists and environmentalists almost to a man and woman.  This meant they had the full cooperation of the governments and their government-run schools.  The children were really well-indoctrinated, as were all college graduates.

10 December 2009

More Hockey Stick Temperature Data

I found the short version of J. Storrs Hall's history of temperature in the the Greenland ice from Watts Up with That?  I am going to present a shorter version here with my comments, but it is worth looking at the original version, which also goes further back in the history of the Earth.  Meanwhile, let us all be very sure that we have a solid understanding of the relatively recent steady and stable climate provided to us by beneficent natural forces prior to man's industrial age, in which man acquired the capability to kill the Earth and promptly set out to do so.  Yes, we all on board with Obama and so many leaders of governments all over the world gathered in Copenhagen who are only too happy to lay down the law and restrict our energy use for the good of the Earth.  ......Good, you know me well enough to know that the last couple of sentences were tongue in cheek, mimicking the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming nuts!

At the Foresight Institute, J. Storrs Hall had some interesting graphs made from NOAA ice core data (Alley, R.B. 2000. The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:213-226.)
Let us look at the recent history of this Greenland ice core data and note how stable the temperature was prior to 1840 during the Little Ice Age.




Note the unique rise from 1840 to about 1880.  This is a terribly sudden rise.  Now just as Mann and Briffa look at their bristlecone and tree ring data sets with flat temperature histories in much of this same period and then append the land surface instrumental measurement data to the late 20th Century as enhanced by the urban heat island effect to create a similar hockey stick set of temperature data, we examine this data in the same mindset.  Well, clearly the early industrial age, though limited to Britain mostly at that time, with the U.S. and Germany as minor players, was very effective in altering the world's climate!  Shame on those Brits!  It's really their fault.  They should pay us punitive taxes!  Indeed, the Brits owe everyone in the whole world.


We should note that there has been a further temperature rise in fits and starts after 1900 of about another 0.5 C.  Dare we look further back in history as seen by Greenland ice?  Awwww......sure, why not.  We are intrepid explorers here!




Hmm.....You mean before the Little Ice Age there was a warm period which was much warmer than it was in 1900?  It was even warmer than now!  Who woulda thunk?  And look at that awful temperature rise from 900 AD to 1025 AD of 1.7 C.  What do you suppose those people coming out of the Dark Ages in Europe did to cause that?  Were they really roasting that many Christian heretics in bonfires?  Was it due to all the blacksmiths hammering out armor and making swords?  I guess whatever they were doing must have stopped in about 1025 AD.  Maybe they noted the fact that their activities had caused man-made global warming.  I bet they all got together in Copenhagen and signed a treaty to burn less wood and charcoal!  Apparently, after that, it got colder and everyone was really happy again!  Man warming the Earth being such an awful bad thing and all.
 
Dare we look still further back?  Of course, we are all fearless here!




Oh my!  It was as warm (at least in Greenland) from about 2500 BC to 500 AD as it is now!  What on earth were those Romans and Greeks and Persians and Indians and Chinese doing then to cause those high temperatures?  Oh, and how come there was ice on Greenland at all?  How dare the ice in Greenland not have melted in 1200 BC when it was about 2.2 C warmer than now.  Al Gore, the inventor of the internet, says it should melt when that warm and flood the Earth with sea levels 20 feet higher than now.

J. Storrs Hall keeps going back and shows us what we really should worry about.  Namely, the Earth has had a real fascination with ice ages in earlier times.  He reminds us, as I have in the past, that if you want to worry about climate change, worry about the way natural forces tend to give the Earth many an ice age.  We should be very thankful it is warm.  Of course, if it were as warm as it was from 2500 BC to 500 AD, we might actually have good reason to be happy.  After all , man made some pretty good advances in that time, when according to Obama and Gore, man should have been too miserable to function.  He should have been hiding deep in his cool caves.

So, Obama and Gore, the UN, and all those European leaders, and the reluctant Indians and Chinese are all sitting down and trying to put the blacksmiths out of work.  If they put enough blacksmiths out of work, do you suppose they can bring on the return of the Little Ice Age?  Wouldn't that be just grand?

16 August 2009

Medieval Warming to Little Ice Age

If the warming of the late 20th Century had not come to an end, what kind of catastrophe were we headed for? Apparently one similar to the Medieval and Roman Warmings. Well, what does Ian Plimer in his wonderful book Heaven and Earth have to say about that?

The Medieval Warming period from 900 to 1300 was a period of great human advances in Europe, China, and Angkor Wat in southeast Asia. Humans generally prospered and were able to more easily feed and cloth themselves. As a result, they had enough time and resources to be able to undertake the building of cities, great cathedrals, and the start of universities throughout Europe. Europe started importing goods from China and the East Indies via the Orient. The Orient itself prospered with renewed agriculture, trade, and the establishment of institutions of learning. This period was warmer than the late 20th Century period.

The Medieval Warming was not nearly as warm as had been the longer Holocene Climate Optimum from 7000 BC to 3000 BC, but it was about the equivalent of the Roman Warming between 250 BC and 450 AD. Europe was warm, rainfall was plentiful, the climate was stable, and agricultural production became more bountiful and reliable. Farmers were able to farm to higher elevations in the mountains. Food production increased enough to allow the population to increase from 30 to 80 million in Europe. The population of China doubled in 100 years also.

There was a great expansion in trade. People could produce more than was needed for subsistence and were able to trade the excess. The warm period was accompanied by fewer storms and intense winds were less common than during the Dark Ages. Note that this is contrary to the claims of many Global Warming Alarmists today. Coastal trade and long distance ocean trade routes were widely established. Movement overland became easier. Though it rained more, there was also more sunshine to dry out the mud on roads. Mountain passes were open for longer periods.

The Vikings settled in Iceland, Greenland, and in North America. They farmed barley and raised cattle and sheep in Greenland. They had vineyards in Newfoundland. They fished for cod and hunted seals in ice-free waters. The Vikings traded extensively in Russia and Kievan Rus, down to Persia and Constantinople.

The Doomsday Book shows grapes were grown in England where they cannot be now. England was warmer and drier then than it is now. Its population grew from1.4 million to 5.5 million. the population of France tripled to become 18 million. Vineyards in Germany went to altitudes of 780 meters, though they only go to 560 meters now. This implies the average temperature was about 1.0 to 1.4 degrees C higher than now. In Norway, the land was cleared, settled, and farmed about 100 to 200 meters higher in elevation than now, suggesting a temperature average about 1 degree C higher than now. In 1000 AD, the treeline of the polar Urals was higher than it is now.

Mining in the higher Alps occurred both in the Roman and Medieval Warming periods. These mines were covered with ice in the Dark Ages and again in the Little Ice Age. Some of these mines were again exposed with the ice retreat of the late 20th Century warming. The sediments of Lake Neufchatel in Switzerland show it was warmer in the Medieval Warming than now, but that a 1.5 degree C temperature drop occurred quickly with the start of the Little Ice Age. The Baltic Sea supported tropical and sub-tropical plankton then, but cannot do so now.

A study of 600 boreholes on all continents shows that the Medieval Warming period was warmer than today. They also show a drop of 0.2 to 0.7 degrees C due to the Little Ice Age. Turkey, Northern Africa, Pakistan, southern Africa, Japan, the Great Plains of North America, Alaska, northern Quebec, southern Ontario, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Mono Lake in California, the Anasazi Indian area, southern Alberta, Argentina, Peru and the Andes, and the South Pacific all experienced the Medieval Warming with benefits to the people of the regions. Similarly, when the Little Ice Age was experienced in all these areas, the people suffered.

Of course, these temperature changes were not caused by CO2 emissions by man. They were caused by changes in the irradiance of the Sun, changes in its magnetic fields, and in its emissions of solar wind and the resulting interactions with cosmic rays.

So, if the 20th Century warming had continued, mankind might have enjoyed the many benefits enjoyed by human civilizations in the Roman and the Medieval Warmings. Those benefits are the catastrophe the Democrats and the rabid environmentalists are trying to protect us from by bringing on catastrophic energy use restrictions and taxes. Had they simply done their homework and taken some reasonable regard for the great wealth that the Industrial Revolution has brought to mankind in increased security, longer lives, a richer intellectual life, and so much more, they would not be intent upon throwing wrenches and bolts into the gears of our economy. In the name of a phantom global warming catastrophe caused by human use of fossil fuels, they would throw many of us out of jobs, leave us in chilled homes and businesses in the winter, in swelteringly humid buildings in summers in which electronics cannot long function, deprive our businesses of profits, and restrict our travel.

As is so often the case, wrong-headed Democrats are coming close to destroying the miracle of America. Perhaps the coming Great Chill caused by our Sun will keep them from wrecking destruction via the route of energy use restrictions. Of course, the Great Chill will itself make life harder, as such chills always have. And, of course, the Democrats are always, without pause, looking for more ways to inhibit our pursuit of happiness as humans. They are especially fond of finding ways to reduce our production of the goods and services that people want.

09 January 2009

Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

I wish to direct my readers to an excellent review of the climate literature on the subjects of global temperature and climate related to the observed increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide which has occurred since 1870. The rate of increase in CO2 has been faster since about 1950 than it was before that date. This review by Arthur B. Robinson, Noah E. Robinson, and Willie Soon was published in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons (2007) 12, 79-90 and was entitled Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Because the article was written for physicians, it is well aimed for my audience of intelligent people, who may very well not be up on the latest jargon of climatologists or all the details of the many ocean cycles, etc.

The first figure of the article shows the temperature measured at the surface of the Sargasso Sea, which is a large area of the Atlantic, over a 3,000 year period using isotope ratios of marine organisms left in the sediment. The average temperature of this period is drawn as a reference and it is seen that the height of Greek civilization occurred during a warm period with a maximum temperature about 2 degrees Centigrade warmer than the average temperature, that the Roman period corresponded to a temperature period very near average, that the Fall of Rome and the Dark Ages corresponded to a period in which the temperature dropped by about 1 degree Centigrade, followed by the Medival Climate Optimum during which conditions improved in Europe, followed again by a decrease called the Little Ice Age, followed again by a return to a very nearly average temperature, where we are today. The French and Indian War and the American Revolution were during the coldest parts of the Little Ice Age, with conditions few living Americans would prefer to those of the present near average temperature. This figure is shown below:

They then show that the shortening of glaciers occurred well before increases in the atmospheric CO2 began. It began as a result of the warming ending the Little Ice Age. They show that the arctic temperature correlates very well back to 1880 with solar activity and does not correlate with atmospheric CO2. Then they show that the increase in annual mean surface temperature in the contiguous United States from 1880 to 2006 was 0.5 degree Centigrade per century. This is a temperature difference well within the 3 degree Centigrade variance over the last 3,000 years and one which few people would notice personally. A 0.5 C temperature increase is caused by an increase in solar activity of about 0.21% and the measured increase in solar activity from 1900 to 2000 was 0.19%.

During the recovery from the Little Ice Age, U.S. climate has improved with more rainfall, fewer tornadoes, and no increase in hurricane activity. Sea level has trended upward over the last 150 years at a rate of 7 inches per century. This sea level rise also began with the end of the Little Ice Age, rather than with the major increases in atmospheric CO2.

During the past 50 years, human use of hydrocarbons has increased 6-fold, but the increase in atmospheric CO2 has been only 22%. This increase in atmospheric CO2 has stimulated plant growth, which is good for both humans and other animals. Higher CO2 concentrations allow plants to grow faster and larger and to grow better in drier climates than otherwise. The Industrial Revolution has not only improved human life, but it has benefited plant life and the animals who depend upon plants. Increased warmth has also made life a bit easier for most plants and animals. The historical record of bursts in human civilizations also seems strongly to correlate with the warmer periods of the last 3,000 years.