Among the issues most commonly discussed are individuality, the rights of the individual, the limits of legitimate government, morality, history, economics, government policy, science, business, education, health care, energy, and man-made global warming evaluations. My posts are aimed at thinking, intelligent individuals, whose comments are very welcome.

"No matter how vast your knowledge or how modest, it is your own mind that has to acquire it." Ayn Rand

27 December 2008

Something to Celebrate in 2009: Global Warming Thesis Falls to Its Knees

While the first year of the presidency of B.O. will be loaded with attempts to bribe U.S. industries into new dependency upon the government trough and a take-over of large chunks of the medical insurance industry and of medical health services, there is an important bit of good news. The claim that the world will soon suffer catastrophic harm due to man-made global warming is likely to continue to lose credibility.

There has been no warming since 1998, when a strong Gulf Stream current and the El Nino cyclical warming in the Pacific caused a very warm year. The cycles of the ocean currents are complex and are not part of the UN IPPC oft-cited global temperature prediction programs. These programs do not provide for the variation of the sun's radiation which correlates with its sunspot activity. Indeed, 69% of the global warming of the last two decades of the 20th century may be due to an increase in radiation from the sun, which would provide a very reasonable explanation for the known temperature increase on several of the other planets of our solar system. We should also bear in mind that the heat capacity of the oceans is hugely greater than that of the atmosphere. Consequently, the current cycles of the oceans play a major role in the decades long cycles of warming and cooling. Variations in the Gulf Stream and the El Nino and El Nina cycles are very important. So to is the 70 to 80 year cycle of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which sometimes brings warm water into the northeast Atlantic.

Other natural factors are finally beginning to get some recognition. The role of cosmic radiation in providing nucleation sites for the formation of water droplets to create cloud cover has recently been recognized. We have long been without any supermajor volcanic explosions that have put sun-reflecting dust into the upper atmosphere, which allows for warmer climates. In 2007, it was also claimed in a paper in the Quarterly Journal of the HMS that increased CO2 in the atmosphere leads to less water in the atmosphere and water is a more important greenhouse gas than CO2 is. Thus, it claims there is no positive feedback leading to increasing temperatures, as has often been claimed by the global warming alarmists.

Perhaps the most important decades long climate temperature cycle is the 22-year cycle in the solar radiation and magnetic field linkage. This produced the warming cycle from about 1975 to 1998 and the earlier warming cycle from 1925 to 1947. The longer term important cycle is the glacial and interglacial periods, with the present period likely still in a warming phase following the last glacial cool period.

The 2007 UN IPCC report claimed we would see a 0.3 degree Centigrade temperature increase in a decade due to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. Well, there has been an increase of 15 ppm from 1998 to 2007 and there was no temperature increase at all. In fact, 2007 itself was a very cold year. Now in 2008, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is about 5% greater than it was in 1998, and still there is no warming. Various scientists have now claimed that there will be no warming until about 2015, due either to sunspot activity cycles or the cycles of ocean currents.

The global climate temperature models of the UN IPCC reports have never been able to predict the temperature into the future, or for that matter the temperature of periods long ago, but inferred from the ice records and by other means. These computer models are known to be completely inadequate for making predictions. What they are is a test of our state of knowledge of the climate and they show us that what we know is still very inadequate. I think they also show that the U.N. is also being selective in what part of our knowledge of the climate causing factors is included in the models. Selective can be good, but the U.N. is being driven by politics in its selection process, rather than by science.

Increasing numbers of scientists have publicly refuted the idea that it is established that CO2 emitted by man into the atmosphere has caused global warming and that any such warming would be catastrophically bad for man and the earth. More than 31,000 scientists have signed the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine petition taking the stance that man-made global warming is not established to be the case by science. Of these scientists, more than 9,000 have Ph.D. degrees. Yours truly has recently sent in his signed statement to be added to the petition. Only 52 scientists had a hand in writing the UN IPCC Summary for Policy Makers.

The scientific case for anthropomorphic global warming is falling apart. It is to be hoped that this will impede the politicians from creating catastrophic cap-and-trade and anti-energy legislation. Many politicians are hoping to use the supposed catastrophe of man-made global warming to force people throughout the world to accept rule from international bodies such as the United Nations. Global energy usage restrictions and taxes are envisioned. We must be diligent in making it known that the science of the climate is not sufficiently known to justify this grab for power. In fact, what is known tends to enforce the idea that natural forces have much more effect upon the climate than do man's activities.

No comments: