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29 August 2008

American and Chinese Exports

For the 12 months through June, the United States' exports grew by 23%, while those of China grew by 17% in terms of dollars. There are predictions that China's export growth will disappear by the end of the year and that its exports will shrink next year.

America's exports to China are up by 20% in the first half of this year compared to the first half of last year. Our imports from China are up only 4% on the same basis.

China's domestic spending is up by 33% in dollar terms in the past year, while America's real domestic demand has been level. Growth of the American economy has been entirely due to increased exports. U. S. retail sales fell in July for the first time in months, but due to net exports, our real GDP did not fall in every quarter since the 3rd quarter of 2007.

Elsewhere: Japan's GDP fell at an annual rate of 2.4% in the 2nd quarter. The growth of the European Market has ended. Japan and Europe account for 20% of America's exports, so this will hurt. However, emerging economies buy more than half of our exports! Brazil, Russia, India, and China are expected to grow by more than 9% next year, so our exports to those countries should be high.

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