Among the issues most commonly discussed are individuality, the rights of the individual, the limits of legitimate government, morality, history, economics, government policy, science, business, education, health care, energy, and man-made global warming evaluations. My posts are aimed at thinking, intelligent individuals, whose comments are very welcome.

"No matter how vast your knowledge or how modest, it is your own mind that has to acquire it." Ayn Rand

11 January 2009

GISS 2008 Global Average Temperature

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) determined average global temperature result for the first 11 months of 2008 is plotted with annual measurements back to 1880. GISS has the reputation of reporting the highest global temperatures of the four principal global temperature sources. Recently they reported temperatures across Russia in October which were identical to those in September, and I do not know if this data was even corrected for that error. Such an error would make the average temperature appear higher than it should be.

So far, 2008 is the coolest year since the year 2000. Note that 1999 and 2000 average global temperatures were below the trendline. Clearly 2008 is also. Examining this data without knowing what the factors are that cause changes in the earth's temperature, one might have a tendency to expect the long term trend of temperature to be upward. However, the last 8 years of data can also be viewed as indicating an end to the rise in temperature, which is consistent with observations of solar activity.

A further rise in temperature is almost certainly more good than bad for mankind barring the panicked reactions of politicians to deprive us of many of the benefits of the Industrial Revolution and take more of our freedom of choice from us. Both the warming from the early 1800s and the Industrial Revolution have made life much richer and easier for humans. This is a good thing and we should allow this beneficial combination to continue. Maybe, we will one day enjoy as warm a climate as that of the Medieval Climate Optimum or that of 500 BC when Greek civilization flowered.

The plot above gives the increase in temperature in degrees Centigrade by region over the world compared to the average temperature in the relatively cool years from 1950 to 1980. Note that the central U.S. and Canada have temperatures unchanged from that period. The coastal region temperatures of both countries are only very slightly warmer. I hardly think anyone in North America is complaining from a personal discomfort standpoint. There is also little change in South America or in Australia. In Africa, only North Africa has seen much of a temperature increase. Iran is also significantly warmed. Apparently, Allah is punishing the Muslims. There is little temperature change in India or in Southeast Asia. The largest temperature changes are in Europe and in North Asia. The further north in Europe and Asia, the greater the increase. It seems clear that this is just exactly what one would wish for. People who live in these regions should be very happy. The farmers there will have an easier time growing food and the wildlife will generally find life easier also.

What is not to like about this situation? Oh yeah, we should be mournful of the fate of the Muslims in North Africa and Iran, whose situation is perhaps worse. But then again, who are we to question Allah's will? If he wishes to reward nearly everyone who is not Muslim and punish those who are, that is his business.


Anonymous said...

Just found your site -- excellent analysis. Rasmussen reports 47% (a majority) of Americans still don't believe in man-made global warming, despite the constant media barrage. This is the coldest spring in my memory, and it's possible we are in a rapid cooling phase. If so, a lot of people are going to be outed as complete fools.

Charles R. Anderson, Ph.D. said...

Yes, the 17 April Rasmussen poll results have approximately inverted relative to a year earlier. Fortunately, the skeptics are increasing and the man-made global warming believers are decreasing. Unfortunately, the same poll says more politicians are believers than there are non-politician skeptics.

The politicians should be embarrassed when the truth is more widely understood, but it seems that they are hardly ever held accountable for their errors. What they are doing in the name of anthropogenic global warming is a huge tragedy. Those who are not skeptics and who have and are about to hurt the innocent with laws to increase the cost of fuel, need badly to be held accountable. The harm they have already caused is huge, but then they do huge harm in so many ways.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Anderson, there is something you can do here. Many federal politicians are on board with GW, because they are being lobbied hard, (and raising money from) the corporations that want this for their own reasons.

However, you will find your state reps aren't buying this at all. Go to the TN Legislature home page and look up SJR0327. We are voting to opt out of cap and trade, and I'm working on getting other states to join. Paste our bill into an email to your state reps, follow-up with a phone call, and tell them to stand up for the people of their state. You will be surprised at the action you get out of state reps who i have found to be accountable and responsive.

Charles R. Anderson, Ph.D. said...

The refusal of the states to go along with the economic suicide of carbon cap and trade legislation at the national level would be a wonderful way to combat this nonsense. I wish that Maryland were as likely to go to war on this issue with the federal government as Tennessee is. But, it may well be that there will be enough people and states opposed that carbon cap and trade will not be advanced by Congress. Will there be enough opposition to also stop the EPA from doing much of the same harm? This may be a more difficult issue.

Mary said...

Well, the great thing about global warming is that it can certainly make you a billionare - ala the disingenuous Al Gore...although, ironically, Ayn Rand might applaud! LOL..tongue in cheek here. Seriously though, prior to the Obamination Grand Fraud, I was a liberal Dem who bought the whole tamale...but, an open-minded one and certainly not a Obamabot. Consequently, I'm re-evaluating my stance on important issues and GW is one of them. Thanks for the diligent research that's evident in your writing...I'm now a recovering Independent and since we've been told nothing but lies for the past 20 years anyway, I'm willing to consider that it's all been nothing but yet another big corporate scam. Keep up the good work!

Charles R. Anderson, Ph.D. said...

Hi Mary,

Thanks for reading with an open mind! The realm of our interactions even at the personal level is very complex and more so at the level of society and government. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of myth that is believed and there are a great many things economists, historians, and scientists have figured out correctly. It is often distressing that so much of what has been understood by many is still a complete mystery to the majority of voters. So we get ridiculous programs such as ethanol subsidies and mandates, minimum wage laws, anti-CO2 emissions mandates and taxes, government one-size-fits-all health care, and increased tax rates which bring in less revenue and kill jobs or the incentive to work. Many of the things we do make no sense and we really should know better.

Too often we get the nonsense programs because they can be sold to the public too busy living their lives to spend enough time thinking about these things. Wouldn't it be nice if the politicians and government officials we pay to spend full-time on these matters were reliable and diligent in figuring out the right policies? This is seldom the way it works however.

There are plenty of corporations who do conjure up great deceits and foist them upon us all by manipulating the media and government. These are often schemes to take advantage of smaller businesses or those with less interest in manipulating government. But, there are also labor unions and many non-profit organizations also wrongly manipulating government for their own special interests. The mess we have, is exactly the mess one should expect when governments become the answer to every problem, real or imagined. When it becomes clear that massive power is to be had if only you control the mechanisms of government, then you will find a mad dash of nasty people to those controls. This is why the Framers of the Constitution were adamant that the federal government should have very limited powers. By letting legislators claim that anything they say is for the general welfare is acceptable constitutionally, we opened the flood gates for hoodlums of all sorts to take advantage of most of us by gaining control of the now excessive government powers. The rights of the individual are now trampled routinely and we are losing more and more control of our own lives. The goons using the government monopoly on the use of force are doing just fine though.