1st Quarter, -0.5%
2nd Quarter, 0.4%
3rd Quarter, 0.9%
4th Quarter, 1.9%
With Europe expected to have a loss of GDP in 2012 of about -0.4% and growth expected to slow in most of the world and with Dodd-Frank Too Big to Fail, ObamaCare, the EPA putting more electric generating plants out of business, federal resistance to oil and gas drilling generally continuing, and lowered exports to be expected due to the rest of the world slowing down, these effects will most likely prevent robust recovery in 2012 in the US as well.
Of course, the Obama crew are touting job formation as I noted above and I have shown how hollow that claim is in my recent post No Evidence for a Jobs Recovery. Let us add a few points to that:
- 43% of the unemployed have been out of work more than 6 months compared to less than 30% 2.5 years ago.
- The average unemployment is now 40 weeks, but 2.5 years ago it was 25 weeks.
- Even using the low-ball BLS unemployment rate, unemployment has been above 8% for 35 months.