The 2011 State Business Tax Climate Index from the Tax Foundation

Kail M. Padgitt, of the Tax Foundation produced the 2011 State Business Tax Climate Index in October.  The report evaluates the effects of state taxes of the following types with the relative weighting following as a percentage:

• Individual Income Tax, 29.64%
• Sales Tax, 25.16%
• Corporate Tax, 19.35%
• Property Tax, 14.57%
• Unemployment Tax, 11.28%

The results of the evaluation are shown in the map below by rank:

In the scoring, the average was set at 5.00 on a scale of 10.00.  I have made up two tables giving the score of each state assigned by the Tax Foundation Study and its rank for 2011 and the rank for 2010.  To this I have added my calculated growth in the state's Gross State Product from 2005 to 2008.  I have also indicated the party in control of the governor's office, the State House, and the State Senate in 2010.

The highest ranked three states, South Dakota, Alaska, and Wyoming, stand out from the other states with their high scores.  The second set of three states, Nevada, Florida, and Montana, also enjoys some significant separation from the other states.  Then New Hampshire and Delaware stand out a bit also.  Beyond that, very small differences in state scores can mean changes of several rank positions, until you get to the bottom 7 positions beginning with Maryland.

Do high taxes discourage the growth of the state Gross State Product (GSP)?  The top 10 ranked states grew by an average of 17.59% from 2005 to 2008, while the bottom ten states grew by 13.36%.  Low taxes provided a 4.23% growth rate advantage to the low tax states in that three year period.  Let us do the math to find the effect this difference in growth would have over 5 three year periods:  1.1759 to the fifth power is 2.248, while 1.1336 to the fifth power is 1.8720.  The difference is that the low tax state economies become 2.25 times larger, while the high tax economies become 1.87 times larger.  Such growth differences matter to the quality of the People's lives.

Let us examine if there is any difference in tax ranking that correlates with the party holding power in the states.  Of course, the 2010 powers that be were not likely to have instantly changed many state taxation traditions, so the duration of control by a given party is also important.  But to keep things simple, we will just consider the party in power in 2010.  Besides, according to Judge Napolitano on Fox Business on Sunday, there is only one party, the Big Government Party, so we should find equality in this tabulation if he is right.  For the top 10 states in the business tax ranking, counting 1 for each case of control of a governorship, house, or senate, the Republicans score 17 and the Democrats score 11.   For the bottom 10 states, those with the worst business taxes, the score is Republicans 6, Democrats 24.  Sorry Judge Napolitano, but on the matter of the business tax climate, it appears that it matters quite a bit which party controls a state.

Of course, there are exceptions.  For instance, Arizona was controlled in all three state government components by Republicans and yet it was in the 34th position and had actually fallen from the 28th position in 2010.  Bad Republicans in Arizona!  I will also chide Oklahoma, where much of my family lives and where I graduated from high school.  Oklahoma has generally been a Republican state for a couple of decades now, but it ranked only 30th among the states.  With Texas (13), Colorado (15), and Missouri (16) on its borders, it is surely losing many businesses to those nearby states with much higher rankings.  In rankings that consider the regulatory environment as well, Oklahoma does better in the ranking, but still there is a clear need for improvement here.

Speaking of the border effect, the state of Maryland is pursuing an insane high tax strategy as well.  It is ranked 44, but Delaware (8), Virginia (12), and Pennsylvania (26), and even West Virginia (37) are all on its borders and offer better business tax climates.  This is why Northrop Grumman, with large operations in Maryland, just moved its headquarters to Virginia which just improved its ranking by three positions.  Virginia was chosen as the #2 best state for business by CNBC, who picked Texas #1.  Virginia's governor says Virginia is coming after Texas and will take over the #1 spot.  Maryland is not in the race and couldn't give a fig.  Maryland's expertise is in suckling at the teats of the federal pig and living off the taxpayers from across the entire country.

Looking at the map above, it is very noticeable that New Hampshire, Delaware, Virginia, Florida, Texas, and Indiana are each states that have much better business tax climates than any of the states on their borders.  They are each sucking in businesses from the nearby states and helping their homegrown businesses to succeed in the most effective manner: by not putting burdens on them with high taxes.  States using limited time tax incentives or offering training to the employees of industries the state has picked as winners are not as effective in growing businesses and jobs as those who leave all this to the private sector.  Dell Computer had a four-year special tax break from the state of North Carolina for a facility, for instance, and has now announced that it is leaving the state when the four years are up.  This is not surprising.  North Carolina is ranked #41, so it makes sense for Dell to go back to Texas at a #13 ranking or maybe move that facility to Florida with its #5 ranking.

Economic Freedom and the Presidential Election

The Pacific Research Institute in association with Forbes produced the U.S. Economic Freedom Index, 2008 Report by Lawrence J. McQuillan, Michael T. Maloney, Eric Daniels, and Brent M. Eastwood and I have been intending to discuss it for some time. Then I thought that it might be interesting to correlate it with the results of the presidential election, which can now be done.

The report says, "Economic freedom is the right of individuals to pursue their interests through voluntary exchange of private property under a rule of law. This freedom forms the foundation of market economies. Subject to a minimal level of government to provide safety and a stable legal foundation, legislative or judicial acts that inhibit this right reduce economic freedom."

They set up 35 indices including such factors as tax rates, state spending, occupational licensing, environmental regulations, income redistribution, right-to-work and prevailing-wage laws, tort reform, and many others. They then assumed that people want to be free, so they search out locations, governments, and situations where freedom reigns. So they made migration their metric for deciding which index among the 35 they had set up as possible good indicators of economic freedom they would use to rank the states for economic freedom.

The formula for the Index is: Index = (0.2313 x Fiscal Score) + (0.2159 x Regulatory Score) + (0.1894 x Judicial Score) + (0.1208 x Government Score) + (0.2426 x Welfare-Spending Score)

The net migration score for the 20 freest states was 27.36 people per thousand. For the 20 most economically oppressed states the net migration score was 1.17 per thousand. For every one place improvement in state rank, a state's net migration per 1,000 people typically increased about one person.

The results of this economic freedom study are given below with the presidential popular vote result for each state, as State, Economic Freedom Score, 2008 Rank, 2004 Rank, 1999 Rank, McCain Vote %, Obama Vote %.

South Dakota, 14.54, 1, 15, 5, 53%, 45%
Idaho, 14.81, 2, 4, 1, 61%, 36%
Colorado, 14.91, 2, 14, 45%, 53%
Utah, 15.16, 4, 5, 3, 63%, 34%
Wyoming, 15.39, 5, 9, 4, 65%, 33%
Nevada, 15.70, 6, 12, 20, 43%, 55%
Oklahoma, 16.74, 7, 6, 18, 66%, 34%
New Hampshire, 17.07, 8, 7, 6, 45%, 55%
Virginia, 17.07, 9, 3, 2, 47%, 52%
Kansas, 18.06, 10, 1, 10, 57%, 41%
Georgia, 18.22, 11, 19, 12, 53%, 46%
North Dakota, 18.56, 12, 18, 21, 53%, 45%
Montana, 18.56, 13, 21, 26, 50%, 47%
Arkansas, 18.82, 14, 23, 15, 59%, 39%
Missouri, 18.90, 15, 10, 13, 50%, 49%
Alabama, 19.03, 16, 25, 11, 61%, 39%
South Carolina, 19.08, 17, 13, 16, 54%, 45%
Wisconsin, 19.15, 18, 38, 37, 43%, 56%
Mississippi, 19.28, 19, 28, 9, 57%, 43%
Delaware, 19.61, 20, 8, 7, 37%, 62%
Arizona, 19.78, 21, 11, 25, 54%, 45%
Iowa, 19.88, 22, 16, 24, 45%, 54%
Indiana, 19.92, 23, 14, 22, 49%, 50%
Hawaii, 19.92, 24, 35, 39, 27%, 72%
Nebraska, 19.93, 25, 20, 23, 57%, 41%
Minnesota, 20.92, 26, 44, 43, 44%, 54%
Illinois, 21.16, 27, 46, 36, 37%, 62%
Florida, 21.16, 28, 22, 30, 49%, 51%
Tennessee, 21.18, 29, 26, 19, 57%, 42%
Oregon, 21.24, 30, 29, 41, 42%, 56%
Texas, 21.32, 31, 17, 8, 55%, 44%
Lousiana, 21.36, 32, 40, 31, 59%, 40%
Massachussetts, 21.72, 33, 41, 47, 36%, 62%
Maryland, 21.73, 34, 27, 35, 38%, 61%
Maine, 21.81, 35, 30, 42, 41%, 58%
North Carolina, 21.87, 36, 24, 17, 49%, 50%
Washington, 21.92, 37, 31, 40, 41%, 58%
West Virginia, 22.55, 38, 32, 32, 56%, 43%
Connecticut, 22.66, 39, 48, 46, 39%, 60%
Kentucky, 22.71, 40, 39, 29, 58%, 41%
New Mexico, 22.82, 41, 37, 28, 42%, 57%
Vermont, 22.87, 42, 36, 34, 32%, 67%
Michigan, 23.08, 43, 34, 27, 41%, 57%
Ohio, 23.34, 44, 43, 33, 47%, 51%
Alaska, 23.38, 45, 33, 38, 62%, 36%
Pennsylvania, 23.88, 46, 45, 45, 44%, 55%
California, 23.89, 47, 49, 44, 37%, 61%
New Jersey, 23.94, 48, 42, 48, 42%, 57%
Rhode Island, 24.18, 49, 47, 49, 35%, 63%
New York, 27.39, 50, 50, 50, 37%, 62%

Of the top 25 freest states by economic freedom ranking, McCain won 16 of the states. In the most oppressed 25 states, he won only 6 states. The voters who consistently pursue restrictions upon our individual economic freedoms, were fairly consistent in choosing the socialist Obama. Of the six states that gave McCain 61% or more of the vote, five were ranked in the top 16 by economic freedom index and four were ranked in the top 7 by economic freedom. The other state was Alaska, whose people think of themselves as being self-reliant and independent, but who are massively on welfare. It will be interesting to see if those states voting for Obama tumble in future economic freedom rankings.

The states of Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, New Hampshire, and Virginia have consistently had top ten rankings in all of the three evaluations in 1999, 2004, and 2008. Until this election, all of these states had voted Republican in the last several presidential elections. Now that New Hampshire and Virginia have defected to the socialist candidate, I expect to see them fall out of the top 10. Indeed, they are barely hanging in there now, both having lost position steadily since 1999. There are other states whose economic freedom ranking has steadily fallen also: Ohio, Michigan, Vermont, New Mexico, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, and Delaware, where I have ordered them from most oppressive to least oppressive. Of the 11 falling states, 8 are already ranked 29 or worse.

There are a few steadily improving states as well. These are Nevada, North Dakota, Montana, and Hawaii. Then there is one state which has been remarkably consistent: New York. It has ranked dead last as the most oppressive state of all in each of the last three evaluations. Most of us will realize that this means it is ranked #50, but for Mr. Obama's sake, I will point out that the last rank is not 57. 57 is the number of Heinz varities, Mr. Obama.

South Dakota at number 1 has no corporate income tax, no personal income tax, no personal property tax, no business inventory tax, and no inheritance tax. Companies are moving into the state. In 2007, the Small Business Survival Foundation ranked South Dakota the best business climate for entrepreneurs. Forbes magazine says Sioux Falls is the best smaller metro area for business and careers. The Milken Institute says it has a low cost of doing business.

The freest states are in the Great Plains and the Rocky Mountain states, while the most oppressed are in the Northeast. South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois have all made major improvements in economic freedom in the Upper Midwest. But, Indiana has fallen somewhat and Michigan and Ohio are both very bad and falling. The fact that Indiana and Ohio have fallen may say a lot about why they voted for Obama and these states may be hard for the Republicans to win in the future given their poor attitude toward economic freedom.

The states with the biggest drops were Texas, Alaska, Delaware, North Carolina, and Arizona. Again, these rapid drops may be a harbinger of future defections to the socialist Democrats of Texas and Arizona and the continued loss of North Carolina.

Among those states having values which have given rise to more economic freedom, the Republicans should find states it will be particularly beneficial to try to swing into the Republican column before the next election. Among these states are Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Delaware, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, and Florida. OK, maybe Illinois will have to wait until they do not have a socialist Native Son in the presidency. A determined and consistent effort in these states might well provide a big payoff in the next election or two. Meanwhile, the Republicans should make a strong effort to improve the economic liberty of Texas and Arizona, so they will not lose them in the future. They should do the same in North Carolina in an effort to recover it.