Did You Know That a 4K Temperature Rise Would Melt All the Ice in Antarctica and Justify the End of Capitalism?

The state government of Arizona pays the advocate of these ideas to teach our children this pathetic propaganda.

The New York Times published an Opinion article by Benjamin Y. Fong, a faculty fellow at Barrett, the Honors College at Arizona State University, entitled The Climate Crisis? It's Capitalism, Stupid.  He calls for the end of Capitalism because Capitalism will inevitably bring about a mass extinction of life on Earth.  He says the mass extinction of life will be caused by a continuation of our current political systems.  By 2100, even with the USA in the Paris Accord, we were well on the way to a 7.2⁰F temperature increase by 2100 according to Fong.  He claims that a 7.2⁰F increase in the temperature of the Earth has previously melted all of the ice at either pole and may do so again.  Consequently, socialism, even communism, has no need to justify itself, because they cannot be as bad as the death warrant stupid Capitalism guarantees us.

Let us examine stupid.  A 7.2⁰F temperature increase is a 4⁰C temperature increase.  Ice melts at 0⁰C.  The highest temperature ever recorded at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station was -12.3⁰C.  The warmest month at the South Pole is January and the average highest daily temperature in that month is -26.0⁰C.  It will be a most interesting trick when a 4⁰C temperature increase melts all of the ice in Antarctica.  This would increase the warmest temperature ever recorded there to only -8.3⁰C and the warmest monthly average temperature to -22⁰C.  Yes, an average temperature increase of 4⁰C would probably be the result of a greater temperature increase at the poles than in the equatorial region, but there is plenty of margin at the South Pole to allow for that.

Before you kill Capitalism because you claim it will bring on a mass extinction of life, please show me that a continuation of our current political institutions will actually cause:

• an average temperature increase of 4⁰C
• a temperature increase at the South Pole of at least 12.3⁰C, or more realistically, an increase of 26⁰C
• that the melting of all the ice at the poles will bring on a mass extinction of life
• that an average temperature increase of 4⁰C, which must be much less in the equatorial regions in order to be 12.3⁰C or more at the South Pole and also more at the North Pole, will bring on the extinction of all life
• that my chance of surviving Communist or other authoritarian socialist societies, with their history of killing over 160 million people, is greater than my chance of surviving a mass extinction
• that a life under Communism is a life worth living

The burden of reasonable proof that Capitalism will inevitably doom us all does not go away simply because someone asserts that Capitalism will have dire consequences for the survival of living creatures on Earth.  So far, most living creatures are not doing badly under Capitalism, while specifically human beings are doing better than they ever have before because of Capitalism.  Capitalism has a history of improving the human condition, while Communism has a history of killing tens of millions of human beings and depriving those who manage to survive of their individual rights and making their survival much more marginal.

It is amazing what people with a political or religious agenda will claim for a 1.4% (4K/288K) increase in the average Earth temperature.  Or, consider the mass extinction that occurs in Denver every September when the temperature rises an average of 30⁰F (16.7⁰C) from the daily average low temperature to the daily average high temperature.  The stupid hat does not go on the Capitalist.  It belongs as anyone committed to reason knows on the head of those who embrace Communism and on those who embrace Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming.  These people seem to never learn the errors of their thinking, which must be the definition of stupid.  Intelligent people have some ability to identify their mistakes and to learn from them.  Intelligence does not guarantee that onw will not make mistakes in a complex world and universe, but it does require a constant concern that one's beliefs are consistent with reality.

It is apparent that intelligence is not a requirement for a faculty position in the Honors College at Arizona State University.  Unfortunately, it is no more required in many other universities either.  Conformity of belief to the Progressive Elitist beliefs in socialism and the essentially evil nature of man is much more important at most universities than is intelligence.

Avalanches of global warming alarmism by Dr. Tim Ball and Tom Harris

UN climate cataclysm predictions have no basis in fact and should not be taken seriously

Throughout the United Nations Climate Change Conference wrapping up in Bonn, Germany this week, the world has been inundated with the usual avalanche of manmade global warming alarmism. The UN expects us to believe that extreme weather, shrinking sea ice, and sea level rise will soon become much worse if we do not quickly phase out our use of fossil fuels that provide over 80% of the world’s energy.

There is essentially nothing to support these alarms, of course. We simply do not have adequate observational data required to know or understand what has happened over the past century and a half. Meaningful forecasts of future climate conditions are therefore impossible.

Nevertheless, this year’s session has been especially intense, since the meeting is being chaired by the island nation of Fiji, a government that has taken climate change fears to extremes.

COP23 (the 23rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties on climate change) conference president, Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, has called for “an absolute dedication to meet the 1.5-degree target.” This is the arbitrary and most stringent goal suggested by the Paris Agreement. In support of Bainimarama’s position, the COP23/Fiji Website repeatedly cites frightening forecasts made by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

One prediction stated: “The IPCC recently reported that temperatures will significantly increase in the Sahel and Southern African regions, rainfall will significantly decrease, and tropical storms will become more frequent and intense, with a projected 20 per cent increase in cyclone activity.” 

To make such dire forecasts, the IPCC relies on computerized models built on data and formulas to represent atmospheric conditions, and reflect the hypothesis that carbon dioxide is the principal factor driving planetary warming and climate change.

However, we still do not have a comprehensive, workable “theory of climate,” and thus do not have valid formulas to properly represent how the atmosphere functions. We also lack data to properly understand what weather was like over most of the planet even in the recent past. Without a good understanding of past weather conditions, we have no way to know the history, or the future, of average weather conditions – what we call the climate.

An important data set used by the computer models cited by the IPCC is the “HadCRUT4” global average temperature history for the past 167 years. This was produced by the Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, both based in the United Kingdom.

Until the 1960s, HadCRUT4 temperature data were collected using mercury thermometers located at weather stations situated mostly in the United States, Japan, the UK, and eastern Australia. Most of the rest of the planet had very few temperature sensing stations, and none of the Earth’s oceans (which cover 70% of the planet) had more than occasional stations separated from the next ones by thousands of kilometers of no data. Temperatures over these vast empty areas were simply “guesstimated.”

Making matters even worse, data collected at weather stations in this sparse grid had, at best, an accuracy of +/-0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees F), and oftentimes no better than +/-1.0 degree C. Averaging such poor data in an attempt to determine past or future global conditions cannot yield anything meaningful – and certainly nothing accurate or valid enough to use in making critical energy policy decisions.

Modern weather station surface temperature data are now collected using precision thermocouples. But, starting in the 1970s, less and less ground surface temperature data was used for plots such as HadCRUT4. Initially, this was done because governments believed satellite monitoring could take over from most of the ground surface data collection.

However, the satellites did not show the warming that climate activists and computer models had forecast. So, bureaucrats closed many of the colder rural surface temperature sensing stations, while many stations in the vast frigid area of Siberia were closed for economic and other reasons. The net result was that cold temperature data disappeared from more recent records – thereby creating artificial warming trends, the very warming that alarmists predicted, desired and needed for political purposes.

Today, we have virtually no data for approximately 85% of the Earth’s surface. Indeed, there are fewer weather stations in operation now than there were in 1960.

That means HadCRUT4 and other surface temperature computations after about 1980 are meaningless. Combining this with the sensitivity (accuracy) problems in the early data, and the fact that we have almost no long-term data above Earth’s surface, the conclusion is unavoidable:

It is not possible to know how or whether Earth’s climate has varied over the past century and a half. The data are therefore useless for input to the computer models that form the basis of the IPCC’s conclusions.

But the lack of adequate surface data is only the start of the problem. The computer models on which the climate scare is based are mathematical constructions that require the input of data above Earth’s surface as well. The models divide the atmosphere into cubes piled on top of each other, ideally with wind, humidity, cloud cover and temperature conditions known for different altitudes. But we currently have even less data above the surface than on it, and there is essentially no historical data at altitude.

Many people think the planet is adequately covered by satellite observations – data that is almost global 24/7 coverage and far more accurate than anything determined at weather stations. But the satellites are unable to collect data from the north and south poles, regions that are touted as critical to understanding global warming.

Moreover, space-based temperature data collection did not start until 1979, and 30 years of weather data is required to generate a single data point on a climate graph. The satellite record is far too short to allow us to come to any useful conclusions about climate change.

In fact, there is insufficient data of any kind – temperature, land and sea ice, glaciers, sea level, extreme weather, ocean pH, et cetera – to be able to determine how today’s climate differs from the past, much less predict the future. The IPCC’s climate forecasts have no connection with the real world.

Sherlock Holmes warned that “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote this famous quote for fiction, of course. But it applies perfectly to today’s global warming debate, especially where the IPCC’s scary conclusions and forecasts are involved. Of course, this will not stop Bainimarama and other conference leaders from citing IPCC “science” in support of their warnings of future climate catastrophe.

We should use these facts to spotlight and embarrass them every time.

___________

Dr. Tim Ball is an environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Manitoba. Tom Harris is executive director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition.

Solving the Parallel Plane Black Body Radiator Problem and Why the Consensus Science Is Wrong

I will present the Consensus, Settled Science solution to the parallel plane black body radiator problem and demonstrate that it is wrong.  I will show that it exaggerates the energy of electromagnetic radiation between the two planes by as much as a factor of two as their temperatures approach one another.  As a result, the calculations of the so-called Consensus, Settled Science dealing with thermal radiation very often result in violations of the Law of Conservation of Energy.

Their calculations of thermal radiation greatly exaggerate the density of the infrared photon radiation in the atmosphere and the extent of the absorption of infrared radiation by infrared-active molecules, commonly called greenhouse gases, such as water vapor and carbon dioxide.  Their theory of the transport of heat energy between the surface of the Earth and the atmosphere and through the atmosphere is very wrong.  It exaggerates the role of thermal radiation greatly and minimizes the role of the water evaporation and condensation cycle and the role of thermal convection.  It cannot be emphasized enough how harmful their mishandling of thermal radiation calculations is to their understanding of the critical issues pertaining to the Earth's climate and to man's role in changing the climate through the use of carbon-based (fossil) fuels. 

In the case in which the two black body parallel plane radiators have the same temperature, the volume between them becomes that of a black body radiator.  The fundamental characteristic of a black body radiator is the constant energy density in the cavity.  I will show that the so-called settled science treatment, which wrongly takes the primary characteristic of a black body radiator to be that the power of emission of radiant energy is given by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, clearly violates the real principal characteristic of a black body cavity, namely that its constant energy density, e, is given by Stefan’s Law as

e = aT⁴,

where T is the temperature in Kelvin, a is Stefan’s Constant of 7.57 x 10^-16 J/m³K⁴ , and e is in Joules per cubic meter.

I have already demonstrated the failure of the settled science treatment of thermal radiation from black body radiators in the form of concentric spherical shells in a paper posted on 23 October 2017, entitled Thermal Radiation Basics and Their Violation by the Settled Science of the Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming Hypothesis, but I want to post this solution with its simpler geometry so that the reason the consensus treatment is wrong will be even more apparent to thinking readers.

Numerous critics of the consensus science on catastrophic man-made global warming have argued that the Second Law of Thermodynamics claims that energy only flows from the warmer body to the colder body, but the consensus scientists have argued that thermodynamics only applies to the net flow of energy.  I have long argued that the reason that radiant energy only flows from the warmer to the cooler body is because the flow is controlled by an electromagnetic field and an energy gradient in that field.  I will offer that proof in this paper.  The Second Law of Thermodynamics is not invoked as the basis of the proof in this paper, but the minimum energy of a system consistent with the Second Law of Thermodynamics does turn out to be a consistent solution to the problem of thermal radiation, while the Consensus, Settled Science theory of thermal radiation does not minimize the system total energy, does not produce the correct energy density of a black body cavity, and is not consistent with the Conservation of Energy.  I have pointed out its failure to conserve energy in many prior posts. 

In a black body cavity, the electromagnetic radiation is in equilibrium with the walls of the cavity at a temperature T.  The energy density e is the mean value of 

½ E·D + ½ H·B,

where E is the impressed electric field, D is the displacement, which differs from E when the medium is polarized (i.e., has dipoles), H is the impressed magnetic field and B is the magnetic polarization of a medium.  If the cavity is under vacuum, then D = E and B = H in the cavity volume and |E| = |H|, so e equals |E|².  The mean value of the energy density of the electromagnetic field in the cavity depends on the temperature and is created by the oscillating dipoles and higher order electric poles in the cavity walls.  The energy density is independent of the volume of the cavity.  The radiation pressure on the cavity walls is proportional to the energy density.


This physics may be reviewed by the reader in an excellent textbook called Thermal Physics by Philip M. Morse, Professor of Physics at MIT, published in 1965 by W.A. Benjamin, Inc., New York.  Prof. Morse wrote it as a challenging text for seniors and first-year graduate students.  I was fortunate to use it in a Thermodynamics course at Brown University in my Junior year.  Alternatively, see my post The Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis and Thermal Radiation -- A Critical Review.

Inside a black body cavity radiator at a temperature T, the energy density, or the energy per unit volume of the vacuum in the cavity is constant in accordance with Stefan’s Law.  If one opens a small peephole in the wall of the black body cavity, the energy density just inside that peephole is the energy density of the black body cavity and that energy density is proportional to the square of the electric field magnitude there.  The Stefan-Boltzmann Law states that the flow rate of energy out of the peephole when the black body cavity is surrounded by vacuum and an environment at T = 0 K, is given as the power P per unit area of the peephole as

P = σT⁴

Note that P = (σ/a) e and that e in the T=0K sink is equal to zero.  A change of energy density in the vacuum volume immediately inside the peephole into the black body cavity as given by Stefan's Law to a value of zero in the T=0K outside environment causes a power of thermal radiation emission out of the peephole to the outside environment as given by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law.

Why is it that a surface which is not a peephole into a black body cavity might act like a black body radiator?  It has to be that the energy density very, very close to that surface has the characteristic of the energy density in a black body cavity radiator, namely that

e = aT⁴.

Any flow of energy out of the surface due to its temperature T must be caused by this electromagnetic field energy density at the surface generated by the vibrational motion of electric charges in the material of the surface.  Such flow of energy from the surface only occurs to regions with an energy density that is lower.  There is no flow of energy from the inside wall of a black body radiator because the energy density everywhere inside the cavity at equilibrium is equal.  P from the interior walls is everywhere zero.  A non-zero P is the result of a non-zero Δe.

In fact, while it is commonly claimed that photons inside the cavity are being 100% absorbed on the walls and an equal amount of radiant energy is emitted from the absorbing wall, the actual case is that the radiant energy incident upon the walls can be entirely reflected from the walls.  Planck had derived the frequency spectrum of a black body cavity from an assumption of complete reflection from the walls.

Here is the problem of the parallel plane black body radiators diagrammed, where T_C is the cooler temperature and T_H is the warmer temperature:

Let us first consider the case that each plane is alone and surrounded by an environment of space at T=0.  Each plane has a power input that causes the plane to have its given temperature.  Each plane radiates electromagnetic energy at a rate per unit surface area of 

P = σT⁴.

Consequently, if neither plane were in the presence of the other and each plane has a surface area of A on each side and P_CO , P_CI , P_HO , and P_HI are all radiation powers per unit area, we have

P_C = AP_CO + AP_CI = 2AσT_C⁴

And

P_H = AP_HO + AP_HI = 2AσT_H⁴ ,

since in equilibrium the power input is equal to the power output by radiation.

In the consensus viewpoint, shared by many physicists and by almost every climate scientist, the parallel plane black body radiators above are believed to emit photons from every surface of each plane even in the presence of the other plane with a power per unit area of

P_H = σT_H⁴ and P_C = σT_C⁴,

just as they would if they were not near one another and they only cast off photons into a sink at T = 0 K.  This viewpoint takes the emitted radiation as a primary property of the surfaces rather than an electromagnetic field with a known energy density as the primary property of the surfaces.

Thus, when these planes are in one another's presence this consensus viewpoint says that

P_C = AP_CO + AP_CI - AP_HI = 2AσT_C⁴ - AσT_H⁴

P_H = AP_HO + AP_HI - AP_CI = 2AσT_H⁴ - AσT_C⁴

Note that P_C becomes zero at T_C = 0.8409 T_H and below that temperature P_C is negative or a cooling power in addition to radiative cooling.  If T_H = 288K, then T_C = 242.2K, the effective radiative temperature of the cooler plane to space if the cooler plane is thought of as the atmosphere and the warmer plane is the surface of the Earth, both the atmosphere and the surface act like black body radiators, and the atmosphere receives only radiant energy from the surface.  This is in agreement with calculations I have presented in the past and is a result which I believe to be correct under the assumptions, even though in some critical respects this consensus viewpoint is wrong.

If these planes were isolated from one another and each plane faced only that T = 0 K vacuum, then one would have

e_H = aT_H⁴ and e_C = aT_C⁴,

because these are black body radiator surfaces.  P_HI when the hotter plane is surrounded by T=0 environment provides the photon flow near the emitting surface which causes the local energy density to be

e_H = aT_H⁴ in this case.

Unlike the case of concentric spherical shells, which I considered in Thermal Radiation Basics and Their Violation by the Settled Science of the Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming Hypothesis, there is no divergence or convergence of the photons emitted from either surface.  The relationship of the radiative power P to the energy density due to that electromagnetic radiation is always e = (a/σ) P as one traverses the distance between the planes.  

Consequently, the energy density between the planes is

e = (a/σ) P_HI + (a/σ) P_CI = aT_H⁴ + aT_C⁴

anywhere between the two planes, because photons have energy no matter which direction they are traveling and they do not annihilate one another based on their direction of travel.  The total energy between the planes is that of the electric field or it is the sum of the energy of all the photons in the space between the planes.  The energy density e would then be the total energy of all the photons divided by the volume of vacuum between the planes.

Now, let us imagine that these planes are very close together and the ends are far away and nearly closed.  Let us have T_C → T_H, then

e → 2aT_H⁴,

but this space between the planes is now a black body cavity in the limit that T_C → T_H, and we know by Stefan’s Law that

e = aT_H⁴

in this case.  In addition, we have created a black body cavity radiator here and P for the walls inside the cavity is actually zero because the interior is in a state of equilibrium and constant energy density.  P is only P = σ T⁴ just outside the peephole facing an environment at T = 0 K.  In the above consensus viewpoint case, each plane surface is emitting real photons, but these cannot annihilate those photons of the opposite plane.  There are no negative energy photons.  These respective photon streams simply add to the total energy density.

The consensus treatment of black body thermal radiation doubles the energy density in a black body cavity, in clear violation of the principal characteristic of a black body cavity upon which their treatment must be based.  Their treatment greatly increases the energy density between the planes whenever T_C is anywhere near T_H, such as is the case of the temperatures in the lower troposphere compared to the Earth’s surface temperature.  Consequently, the sum of P_HI and P_CI must be much smaller than they are thought to be in the consensus treatment of this problem or in the similar concentric spherical shell problem.

Let us now examine the correct solution to this parallel plane black body radiators problem.  It is the electromagnetic field between the two planes that governs the flow of electromagnetic energy between the planes.  Or one can say it is the energy density at each plane surface that drives the exchange of energy between the planes due to the energy density gradient between the two planes.  The critical and driving parameter here is

Δe = e_H - e_C = aT_H⁴ – aT_C⁴ ,

where each black body radiator surface maintains its black body radiator requirement that the energy density at the surface is given by Stefan’s Law.

Electromagnetic energy flows from the high energy surface to the low energy surface, as is the case in energy flows generally.

P_HI = (σ/a) Δe = (σ/a) (aT_H⁴ – aT_C⁴ ) = σ T_H⁴ – σ T_C⁴

P_CI = 0,

which is consistent with experimental measurements of the rate of radiant heat flow between two black body radiators.  Note that as T_C approaches T_H, P_HI approaches zero as should be the case inside a black body cavity in thermal equilibrium.  There is no thermal emission from either of the black body cavity walls then.  Note also that when T_C = 0 K, P_HI is given by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law

P_HI = σ T_H⁴.

Let us recalculate P_H and P_C in this correct formulation of the problem:

P_C = AP_CO + AP_CI - AP_HI = AσT_C⁴ + 0 – [AσT_H⁴ - AσT_C⁴] = 2AσT_C⁴ - AσT_H⁴

P_H = AP_HO + AP_HI - AP_CI = AσT_H⁴ + [AσT_H⁴ - AσT_C⁴] - 0 = 2AσT_H⁴ - AσT_C⁴

And we see that the power inputs to each plane needed to maintain their respective temperatures as they cool themselves by thermal radiation are unchanged in this correct energy density or electromagnetic field centered viewpoint from the consensus viewpoint. Experimentally, the relationship between the power inputs to the thermal radiation emitting planes at given temperatures are exactly the same.  This fact causes the proponents of the consensus viewpoint to believe they are right, but they nonetheless violate the energy density requirements of electromagnetic fields and of black body radiation itself.

Because P_CI = 0, back radiation from a cooler atmosphere to the surface is also zero and not 100% of the top of the atmosphere solar insolation as in the current NASA Earth Energy Budget.  Because P_HI = σ T_H⁴ – σ T_C⁴ , the Earth's surface does not radiate 117% of the top of the atmosphere insolation either.  These radiation flows are hugely exaggerated by NASA and in similar Earth Energy Budgets presented in the UN IPCC reports.  See the NASA Earth Energy Budget below:

This is very important because reducing these two radiant energy flows of infrared photons reduces the effect of infrared-active gases, the so-called greenhouse gases, drastically.  Many fewer photons are actually available to be absorbed or emitted by greenhouse gases than they imagine.  This is a principal error that should cause the global climate computer models to greatly exaggerate the effects of the greenhouse gases, just as they have.

As I have pointed out in the past, one fatal consequence of the exaggeration of thermal radiation from the surface of the Earth is readily calculated from the fact that even if the atmosphere acted as a black body absorber, which it does not, it can only absorb the thermal radiation said to be emitted from the surface at an absurdly low atmospheric temperature.  Observe that the power of infrared radiation from the surface which is absorbed by the atmosphere P_SA is

P_SA = σ ( T_S⁴ – T_A⁴)

P_SA = (1.17 – 0.12) (340 W/m²)

The first equation is from the discussion above with T_S the surface temperature and T_A the temperature of the atmosphere.  The second is according to the NASA Earth Energy Budget above.  If one takes T_S to be 288K, then the temperature of the atmosphere required to absorb as much infrared energy as NASA claims is absorbed is 155.4K.  There is no such low temperature in the Earth’s atmosphere.  To find so low a temperature, one has to go far out into the solar system many times the radius of Earth’s orbit.  That being the case, any such thermal radiation absorbed by matter at such a low temperature is as much lost in the Earth Energy Budget as is the power equal to 12% of the solar insolation emitted from the Earth’s surface which NASA allows passes through the atmospheric window into space.  It should be apparent to the reader that the NASA Earth Energy Budget is nonsense.

It is not at all surprising that physics adheres to a minimum total energy in the system and does not generate a superfluous stream of photons from the colder body to the warmer body and does not have any more photons flowing to the colder body from the warmer body than necessary.  By means of the electromagnetic field between these two planes, the photon emission of the planes is coupled and affected by the presence of the other plane.  This is in no way surprising for an electromagnetic field problem.  One needs to remember that photons are creatures of electromagnetic fields.  Opposing streams of photons do not annihilate one another to cancel out energy, they simply add their energies.  Treating them as though one stream has a negative energy and the other a positive energy is just a means to throw the use of the Conservation of Energy out the window.  That is too critical a principle of physics to be tossed out the window.

Extending the Solution to Gray Body Thermal Radiators and Other Real Materials:

Many real materials do not behave like black body radiators of thermal radiation.  Those that do not radiate as black body materials would, radiate less than the black body radiator would.  Why would they radiate less?  This is because they do not create as high an electromagnetic field energy density at their surfaces as does a black body radiator.  From Stefan’s Law for a black body radiator, the energy density at the surface is

e = aT⁴

but for a gray body radiator the energy density at each wavelength λ is

e(λ) = εaT⁴.

This means the energy density at any given frequency is a constant fraction ɛ of that of a black body radiator, with 0 ≤ ɛ ≤ 1.

In general, a material may not behave like either a black body or a gray body radiator at a particular wavelength.  In that case,

e(λ) = ε(λ)aT⁴,

where the fraction of the black body output at wavelength λ is variable.

An isolated material surrounded by vacuum and a T=0 K environment then has a power per unit area output of

P(λ) = εσT⁴ for a gray body and ε is seen to be the emissivity, and

P(λ) = ε(λ)σT⁴, for a general material, such as carbon dioxide or water vapor, where the absorption and emission become variable fractions of that of a black body as a function of wavelength.

For our two parallel plates above, if both are gray bodies, then between the plates

Δe = e_H – e_C = ε_H a T_H⁴ – ε_C a T_C⁴

P_HI = (σ/a) Δe = ε_H σ T_H⁴ – ε_C σ T_C⁴

P_CI = 0.

Here we see that the emissivity which determines the electromagnetic field energy density at the surface is also playing the role of the absorptivity at the absorbing colder surface.  So of course, Kirchhoff’s Law of thermal radiation that the emissivity equals the absorptivity of a material in a steady state process applies.  There is really nothing at all to prove if one starts with the primary fact and boundary condition that the energy density is the fundamental driver of the thermal radiation of materials.

Update:  Considerable additions were made on 8 November 2017.

Update:  Additions made on 12 November 2017.
Update:  The extension to gray bodies and other bodies was made on 14 November 2017.
Update:  Explanatory additions on 27 November 2017.
Update:  Further explanatory text added on 29 November 2017.
Update:  Further efforts to help the reader to understand this post and to provide the reader a reason to read it in the introductory paragraphs on 24 March 2018.  I am amazed how difficult many readers find it to alter their viewpoint of thermal radiation even when they have no counter argument to my argument presented here.

Politicized sustainability threatens planet and people by Paul Driessen

It drives anti-fossil fuel agendas and threatens wildlife, jobs, and human health and welfare

Sustainability (sustainable development) is one of the hottest trends on college campuses, in the news media, in corporate boardrooms and with regulators. There are three different versions.

Real Sustainability involves thoughtful, caring, responsible, economical stewardship and conservation of land, water, energy, metallic, forest, wildlife and other natural resources. Responsible businesses, families and communities practice this kind of sustainability every day: polluting less, recycling where it makes sense, and using less energy, water and raw materials to manufacture the products we need.

Public Relations Sustainability mostly involves meaningless, superficial, unverifiable, image-enhancing assertions that a company is devoted to renewable fuels, corporate responsibility, environmental justice, reducing its carbon footprint – or sustainability. Its primary goal is garnering favorable press or appeasing radical environmental groups.

Politicized Sustainability is the untenable, even dangerous variety. It relies on ideological assertions and theoretical models as an alternative to actual outside-our-windows reality and evidence. Like “dangerous manmade climate change,” its real purpose is gaining greater agitator and government control over people’s energy use, lives, livelihoods, liberties and living standards. It reflects an abysmal understanding of basic energy, economic, resource extraction, manufacturing and human rights realities.

The most common definition is that “we may meet the needs of current generations” only to the extent that doing so “will not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their needs.”

Among other alleged human wrong doing, Political Sustainability thus reflects the assertion that we are rapidly depleting finite resources. Therefore, we must reduce our current needs and wants in order to save those resources for future generations. At first blush, it sounds logical, and even ethical.

However, under sustainability precepts, we are supposed to predict future technologies – and ensure that today’s resource demands will not compromise the completely unpredictable energy and raw material requirements that those completely unpredictable future technologies will introduce. We are supposed to safeguard the assumed needs of future generations, even if it means ignoring or compromising the undeniable needs of current generations – including the needs, aspirations, health and welfare of the most impoverished, malnourished, disease-ravaged, energy-deprived, politically powerless people on Earth.

For thousands of years, mankind advanced at a snail’s pace. Then, as the modern fossil-fuel industrial era found its footing, progress picked up rapidly, until the speed of change became almost exponential. How today is anyone supposed to predict what might be in store ten, fifty or a hundred years from now?

Moreover, as we moved from flint to copper, to bronze, iron, steel and beyond, we didn’t do so because mankind had exhausted Earth’s supplies of flint, copper, tin and so forth. We did it because we innovated. We invented something better, more efficient, more practical. Each advance required different materials. 

Who today can foresee what future technologies we will have … and what raw materials those future technologies will require? How we are supposed to ensure that future families can meet their needs, if we cannot possibly know what those needs will be?

Why then would we even think of empowering activists and governments to regulate today’s activities – based on wholly unpredictable future technologies, lifestyles, needs and resource demands? Why would we ignore or compromise the pressing needs of current generations, to meet those totally unpredictable future needs?

“Resource depletion” claims also fail to account for new technologies that increase energy and mineral reserves, reduce their costs – or decrease the need for certain raw materials: copper, for instance, because lightweight fiber optic cables made from silica (one of Earth’s most abundant minerals) can carry thousands of times more information than a huge bundle of copper wires that weigh 800 times more.

In 1887, when Wisconsin’s Hearthstone House became the world’s first home lit by hydroelectric power, no one could foresee how electricity would come to dominate, enhance and safeguard our lives in the myriad ways it does today. No one could envision the many ways we generate electricity today.

120 years later, no one predicted tiny cellular phones with superb digital cameras and more computing and networking power than a big 1990 desktop computer. No one expected that we would need so much cadmium, lithium, rare earth metals and other raw materials to manufacture thousands of wind turbines.

No one anticipated that new 4-D seismic, deepwater drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies would find and produce so much oil and natural gas that today we still have at least a century’s worth of these vital energy resources – which “experts” had just told us we would run out of in only a few more years.

And yet, we are still supposed to predict the future 50 or 100 years from now, safeguard the assumed needs of future generations, and ignore the clear needs of current generations. We are also supposed to presume that today’s essential natural resources have to last forever. In reality, they only have to last long enough for our creative intellects to discover real, actually workable replacements: new deposits, production techniques, raw material substitutes or technologies.

Of course, all of this is irrelevant to Politicized Sustainability dogma. That doctrine focuses on ridding the world of fossil fuels, regardless of any social, economic, environmental or human costs of doing so. And regardless of whether supposed alternatives really are eco-friendly and sustainable.

For example, mandated U.S. ethanol quotas eat up 40% of this nation’s corn, grown on over 36 million acres of cropland, to replace 10% of America’s gasoline. Corn ethanol also requires billions of gallons of water, and vast quantities of pesticides, fertilizers, tractor fuel and natural gas … to produce energy that drives up food prices, damages small engines, gets one-third fewer miles per gallon than gasoline – and during its entire production and use cycle emits just as much carbon dioxide as gasoline.

Imagine replacing 100% of US gasoline with corn ethanol. How would that in any way be sustainable?

Mandated, subsidized wind energy requires millions of acres for turbines and ultra-long transmission lines … and billions of tons of concrete, steel, copper, rare earth metals and fiberglass. The turbines’ subsonic noise and light flicker create chronic health problems for susceptible people living near them, and kill millions of birds and bats annually – to produce expensive, intermittent, unreliable electricity that must be backed up by dozens of fossil fuel generators or billions of (nonexistent) land- and resource-intensive battery arrays. 

Meanwhile, American and Canadian companies are cutting down thousands of acres of forests and turning millions of trees into wood pellets that they truck to coastal ports and transport on oil-fueled cargo ships to England. There the pellets are hauled by truck and burned in place of coal, to generate electricity … so that England can meet its renewable fuel targets. How is this sustainable – or “climate friendly”?

Why not just build the fossil fuel power plants … mine for coal and frack for natural gas to fuel them – or build more nuclear power plants – and forget about the ethanol, wind turbines, wood pellets and other pseudo-renewable, pseudo-sustainable false alternatives … until something truly better comes along?

Meanwhile, more than 1.2 billion people still do not have electricity. Another 2 billion have electrical power only sporadically and unpredictably. Hundreds of millions get horribly sick, and five million die every year from lung and intestinal diseases that are due to breathing smoke from open fires … and not having refrigeration, clean water and safe, bacteria-free food.

As Steven Lyazi has noted, these people simply want to take their rightful, God-given places among Earth’s healthy and prosperous people. Instead, they’re being told “that wouldn’t be sustainable.” They’re being told they must be content with a few wind turbines near their villages and little solar panels on their huts – to charge cell phones, pump a little water, power a few light bulbs and operate tiny refrigerators.

Politicized Sustainability is irrational, unjust, inhumane, eco-imperialistic and environmentally destructive. It is especially harmful to the world’s poor. It’s time to rethink and overhaul this insanity.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org), and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power - Black death and other books on public policy.