I am going to make a quesstimate of what such a functional effect on the vote for a generic Republican presidential candidate might reasonably be and apply that function state by state based on the present unemployment rate to predict the shift in electoral votes from Obama's previous 2008 election result. In that campaign, many Americans bothered to learn little about him and his total commitment to socialism, leftist environmentalism, anti-business bias, and his anti-fossil fuel bias, all of which have proven highly destructive of the economy and jobs. I am proposing that many Americans have awoken to this reality. John McCain mounted a feckless campaign and lost big to Obama in the electoral vote. He lost many states that often vote for the Republican presidential candidate. Of course, some states are full of people who will refuse to blame Obama even now for the jobs situation or people who so share his political philosophy of collectivism and anti-man religious environmentalism that they will be little driven to address the jobs problem.
Let us assume that the strength of the vote switch is proportional to how high the unemployment rate in a state is. In fact, I will assume there is no effect for the purposes of this electoral vote projection if the unemployment rate is below 7%. This is unlikely to be the case, but I want to make a reasonably conservative estimate of the shift in electoral votes. Also, many people who recognize Obama as a jobs problem in the U.S. as a whole will still be more inclined to vote against him out of concern for those many Americans in states less fortunate than their own with respect to jobs. The function I will use is: