Among the issues most commonly discussed are individuality, the rights of the individual, the limits of legitimate government, morality, history, economics, government policy, science, business, education, health care, energy, and man-made global warming evaluations. My posts are aimed at thinking, intelligent individuals, whose comments are very welcome.

09 November 2012

The Fed Projects 3% Growth in 2015, But Be Wary

Bill Wilson of Americans for Limited Government has written an interesting review of the predictions for GDP growth by the Federal Reserve through this never-ending Great Socialist Recession.  He notes that the Federal Reserve is now predicting 3% GDP growth in 2015.  Let me summarize the story of the Federal Reserve predictions for real GDP growth and the actual real GDP growth with the numbers he gives and those I have added:

2008:
January 2008:  Prediction of 1.3 to 2.0%
October 2008: Prediction of 0.0 to 0.3%

Actual 2008: -0.3%


2009:
January 2008:  Prediction of 2.1 to 2.7%
October 2008: Prediction of -0.2 to 1.1%
January 2009:  Prediction of -1.3 to -0.5%

Actual 2009:  -3.1%


2010:
January 2009:  Prediction of 2.5 to 3.3%
January 2010:  Prediction of 2.8 to 3.5%

Actual 2010: 2.4% 


2011:
January 2009:  Prediction of 3.8 to 5.0%
January 2010:  Prediction of 3.4 to 4.5%
January 2011:  Prediction of 3.4 to 3.9%
June 2011:  Prediction of 2.7 to 2.9%

 Actual 2011:  1.8%


2012:
January 2010:  Prediction of 3.5 to 4.5% 
January 2011:  Prediction of 3.5 to 4.4%
January 2012:  Prediction of 2.2 to 2.7%

Actual 2012 So Far:  1.76% 
 

2013:
January 2011:  Prediction of 3.7 to 4.6%
January 2012:  Prediction of 2.8 to 3.2%
September 2012:  Prediction of 2.5 to 3.0%

2014:
January 2012:  Prediction of 3.3 to 4.0%

September 2012:  Prediction of 3.0 to 3.8% 

2015:
September 2012:  Prediction of 3.0 to 3.8%

Clearly, the Federal Reserve does not understand how the economy and businesses work.   It clearly consistently underestimates how much growth control of the economy by the government and the Federal Reserve itself is destroyed by their actions.  The Federal Reserve has been the eternal optimist in its real GDP forecasts for years now.  The closer they get to a year or its completion, the lower their estimates become, but never as low as the actual result.

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